UPDATE:
Ok, since I am bored out of my mind this week, I decided to bite the bullet and just do it.
I got on youtube and watched Deni Avijda play in the U20 European semifinal game against France and championship game against Spain. The necessity for this just ended up being to great to deny. I have been so intrigued by Avijda that I just had to see him for my own eyes.
**Not to mention the heightening realization that Deni is very likely to end up playing for my Golden State Warriors**
For some context here, the U20 European Championship is basically the European equivalent of the NCAA Final Four. While most of the players in the competition were 19 or freshly turned 20, Deni was 17. He was the Most Valuable Player of the tournament and led Israel to a surprising championship victory.
Watching these games has significantly changed my perspective on Deni.
The most dramatic thing that I realized while watching was the absurdity of the narratives that we all develop about prospects. NONE of us. And I really mean NONE of us, actually sit down and watch full game tape tip to tip. And why would we? We are media members with deadlines, or armchair fans of the NBA. None of us actually have the time to watch full game tape of every NBA lottery prospect.
Because of this, 99% of the narrative on players come from generalizations. And these generalizations come from the following areas; statistics; highlight videos; big games on national TV and groupthink generated by "draft experts."
All of these generalizations are in play when talking about Deni Avijda. (You can even see evidence of it in what I had previously written on Deni)
First, the stats of an 18 year old playing in a professional basketball league are not indicitive of that players FUTURE talent. Just like you wouldn't have said Kobe Bryant sucks because he averaged 7ppg as an 18 year old rookie, you wouldnt say Deni sucks for scoring 4ppg in his first professional season either. Obi Toppin is better than Deni, just because he scored 20ppg as a 22 year old in a mid-major conference isn't apples to apples either.
The same logic applies to his 22% shooting percentage as well. Are we really going to label this kid as a poor shooter based on 47 attempts as an 18 year old finding his way in a professional league? His play in the U20's has to be factored in as well. In each of the games that I watched he repeatedly took and made tough three point shots in key moments. He clearly has confidence in his own shot. (He shot 5/12 from 3 in the two games I watched)
Further, American fans have never actually SEEN Deni play. Even I was very surprised at how much different Deni was than I had projected in my head. He is an alpha on the basketball court, drawing all eyes magnetically to him. He is a 6'9 "pretty boy" who dictates the flow of the game with his size, skill and impressive passing ability. His body language teeters between antagonistic hollywood jock and hometown heart throb hero.
He is both Daniel San and Johnny Lawrence at the same time. If he was know to the american public, he would be a teenage sensation. The narrative around him in this draft would be totally different.
But instead, he is a giant question mark. And in an odd way, I feel like like this is because of comparisons to Luca Doncic. Yes, they are both 6'9 can both handle the ball and are of course both European, but they are very different players. Anybody watching Deni for the first time, expecting to see the next Luca will be seriously disappointed. I do think that feeling of disappointment is hurting Avijda's perception to some degree.
What is not being disccused however, and what I believe to be the most encouraging about Deni, is the thing he does have in common with Luca. Both are sons of former high level European basketball players, and professional athlete mothers, and both carry an expectation to become the best players to ever come from their respective countries. They are essentially the Lebron James' of Slovenia and Israel.
I really like this. I like that they have carried expectations since a young age to be a historically great player. And I LOVE that they have been guided through this process by reliable parents/mentors who know what it takes to make a living as a professional athlete. (A la' Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki and Danillo Gallinari to name a few)
And everything that Deni has done thus far DOES indicate that he will fulfill his Isralian prophecy. At 17 he won the U20's title, at 18 he joined the top pro team in Israel and at 19 he will be an NBA lottery pick. To me, this is a great indicator of future success. Deni has shown us the last 3 years that he can accept high expectations and than deliver. I like the psychology behind that. And I think it is meaningful as he attempts to establish himself as an NBA star.
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So the question becomes should somebody, maybe even the Warriors, select Deni Avijda over somebody like James Wiseman? And to that question, I am undecided.
Deni most CERTAINLY has his warts. He is 6'9 but has gator arms, limiting his defense, rebounding and rim protection somewhat. His ballhandling is definitely good, but I would not categorize it as great. He dribbles a little too high for my liking and appears to have a strong tendency to go right. He also does not have great "bounce" although he is coordinated and takes good angles. He could stand to improve his overall balance.
So there is a very real chance that he is not quite long enough, not quite skilled enough and not quite athletic enough. All of those things could add up to him being a below average player. He is a prospect that still has to put everything together.
So does that sound like somebody a GM would be willing to take over a 7'1 superfreak like Wiseman?
Maybe.
On the one hand, Wiseman's role in the NBA is really not that hard to find. It is much easier for a team to find a low cost "5" than it is a low cost "wing." We have seen Daniel Theis, Montrez Harrell, Javalle McGee, Zaza Paculia and even Kevon Looney be more than effective "5s" in deep playoff runs. Even Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka last season were acquired relatively inexpensively by the Raptors. Not to mention non-lottery picks Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert and Jusef Nurkic.
Meanwhile, every single player in the NBA that stands at 6'7+ and can shoot a three is commanding piles of cash in free agency. And that is only if they are made available in the first place. (Hell, Andrew Wiggins makes $30 million a year.) And so wings are in much higher demand than 5's. And this is a major case for selecting Deni.
Additionally, Deni projects to be a winning basketball player. He already does the little things that are important to winning NBA finals games. He reads the floor offensively and defensively. Is a sharp and crisp decision maker and plays hard and plays with confidence. He is a major energy giver and not an energy taker.
Wiseman on the other hand has major question marks about whether he can ever develop into a guy with elite intangibles. In the few games we saw in college he struggled to understand what was going on at either end of the floor. He processed the game very slowly and generally relied on his otherworldly athleticism to impact the game. He made poor decisions and frequently reached beyond his capabilities. He most certainly has not proven that he can effect the game with his smarts, cunning or savvy. Things that show themselves as usefull year after year in the NBA finals. Just ask guys like Rajon Rondo, Shane Battier or David West.
On the other hand...
Arent we really overthinking this here??? Wiseman is an absolute freak. He has a 7'6 wingspan, rebounds, runs the floor protects the rim and is capable of flushing any alley oop that you put even remotely near him. Oh, and by the way, he is not a stiff. He is a very fluid and coordinated athlete that already can take a rebound coast to coast, score in the post at a pretty high level and even has a surprisingly nice looking jump shot.
So in summary....
I dont really know what to think!! I am not sure that I would have the balls to select Avijda OVER Wiseman, or even Ball or Edwards.
But I think that the contrarian in me is really hoping that Bob Meyers will.
