Before I begin, I would like to point out how absolutely ridiculous it is to grade the picks of a draft. Imagine being a sportswriter and having the audacity to "grade" the selections made by professional sports teams. What you are essentially saying is that 30 NBA franchises, each worth billions of dollars, and all of whom have carte blanche access to the smartest basketball minds in the entire world, PALE! in comparison to your all mighty knowledge and ability to forecast the future of 19 year old basketball players.
Right.
To pick on just Jeremy Woo of Si.com for example. Here is a quick summary of his last three years worth of draft grades (skipping 2019 because that was to recent to make fun of)...
In 2016, he gave Jaylen Brown a B- and Dragan Bender a resounding A. Bender was seen as the "best player available," with Jamal Murray and Domontas Sabonis still on the board, while Brown was seen a a player with "many offensive question marks." Late in the draft he dishes out an A to for Brice Johnson followed up by a C+ for Pascal Siakim. He quote, "wishes the Raptors had gone with a guy like Deonta Davis."
In 2017, he gave the top 6 draft selections an A. Those selections included Markelle Futlz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson and Jonathon Issac. Conversely, the 7th pick, Lauri Markanen received a C+ because" all around skill set needs a lot of work." Justin Patton was a "perfect" pick for the Timberwolves at #16.
The 13th overall and 14th overall selections were given grades of A- and B+ respectively, while the 30th pick was given an A+. The 13th pick was Donovan Mitchell, the 14th picks was Bam Adebayo and the 30th pick was Josh Hart. Adebayo was seen as a "safe" pick taken ahead of a "slew of other talented bigs."(He did nail the Derick White pick though with an A.)
In 2018, he gave A's for both the selection of Mo Bamba and Luca Doncic. Forgive me if I have a hard time shaking the feeling that the Luca pick was much more of an "A" than the Bamba pick. Woo than goes on to.... well, he actually did a really darn good job nailing the remainder of the 2018 draft.
Anyways!
This all just goes to show the absolute absurdity of grading NBA draft picks. We have no idea! Sports Illustrated's top paid professional draft person has no idea, we have no idea and NBA teams, to a degree, have really no idea either.
Without further ado, my 2020 NBA draft grades!!!...
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To be an NBA draft-pick-grader of any quality, you need to be up front about your perspective. Every single pick could be spun to an A or an F, depending upon which lense you are viewing it with. From my view, a draft graders philosophy can fall along three spectrum.
The first spectrum being whether you value winning the NBA title, or whether you value just being a good NBA team.
If you are in the first camp, and value the pursuit of an NBA title above all else, you will look upon this years draft quite critically. There is no Zion, no Luka, no Jayson Tatum. You know that no reasonable person could reasonably argue that a player in this draft moved the NBA title odds significantly towards his teams favor. Thus, from your perspective, this was a very poor draft, and most picks should be graded poorly.
If you are in the second camp, and value being a good NBA team, just for the sake of being a good team, you will look upon this years draft quite favorably. There were a lot of high end role players selected and to you, these players will invariably have a positive affect on their team. You dont expect every team to win the NBA title anyways. You simply expect baby steps in the right direction.
You are fully aware that only 3 players, Lebron James, Steph Curry and Kawahi Leonard have accounted for the last 9 consecutive NBA titles, and you do not fault any franchises for simply not having one of those three players under contract. Thus, from your perspective, this was actually an underrated draft, and most picks should be graded favorably.
The second spectrum is what you tend to favor more when you evaluate talent. Are you an evaluator that can stomach the prospects of a high ceiling, low floor type of player? Or, do you have more of a high floor, low ceiling type of appetite.
For high ceiling, low floor types of people, the draft is all about landing a star. Every precious selection should be made on the player with the biggest upside. Go big or go home! After all, there are only two ways to acquire a star and one of them is the draft. Free agency is risky, stressful and requires much financial maneuvering and finagling. In the draft, all you have to do is nail the pick. From this perspective, the draft is all about "measurables" and flashes of skillsets that mimic current NBA stars.
For high floor, and low ceiling types of people, the draft is simply about getting good players. They would rather come out of the draft with a good solid rotation player than take unnecessary risk and select a flop. After all, drafting a bust is a zero sum value proposition, while hitting on good players year after year can gradually build your team into something. (Post big three Spurs.) From this perspective, there is more of a "realistic" philosophy. See players for who they are and than select the ones who will fit into a role that your team needs. It is about not overthinking it. Its about going for the player that you know will be solid.
The third and final spectrum is where you claim to aquire your expertise? Do you generally rely on the opinions and consensus of draft experts? Or do generally rely on the opinions of your own eyeballs.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being an expert on reading nba draft experts. Perhaps you are skilled at triangulating the opinions of various outlets and than putting together a sort of player composite in your head. That is totally fine, as you can acquire a nice depth of knowledge about a prospect.
But it also leaves you vulnerable to group-think. If a popular draft expert makes an incorrect assessment on a player, something that all talent evaluators inevitably do, and that assessment gets picked by other evaluators, than that incorrect assessment can quickly turn in to common public consensus.
For example, if I write for ESPN and I begin to form a "gut feeling" on a player I may be motivated to write down my gut feeling about this player. And lets say that this feeling about a player is a a true gut feeling, as in it is beyond what statistics or raw data is capable of supporting. What is the reasonable expectation that this feeling will become truth? 50%? 75%? 100%??? (dont answer 100% unless you are out of your mind.)
And so, if you were to put this opinion up on ESPN's website, your high profile could than strongly influence the narrative built around a specific player. Even if that narrative is built upon a gut feeling that may not turn out to be true.
To avoid the risk of group think, you could potentially fall into the other camp. The film watching camp. Whether its full games you watched during the college basketball season or even highlights that you recently found on youtube, coming from this perspective means that you like to trust the opinion of your own eyeballs. (And also that you have a lot of free time.)
Whichever method you use, it would be prudent for you to be clear to your readers where exactly you are coming from. Are you saying that you think this was a good/bad pick because it went for/against popular consensus? Or are you saying that this was a good/bad pick because you have a unique insight into why that was a good/bad pick.
All of which is to bring us back full circle to what my personally grading philosophy is when grading all of these picks based on the three spectrums that I have just laid out.
For me, I lean a 75% towards valuing the pursuit of an NBA title. I love watching good teams play, even if it that just means a solid 1st round playoff match up. But at the end of the day, shouldn't we all be trying to win a title? I mean the allure of the whole draft is that one pick can automatically overhaul the fortunes of a given franchise. So I will be grading most of the 2020 picks through the lens of, "did this move the needle on this teams title hopes?"
For the high ceiling vs high floor debate i am 50/50. I love a prospect with potential, but darnit if I dont love a player drafted to a team with an available role perfectly befitting of that players skillset. I will openly toggle between these two lenses.
For my methods of acquiring knowledge, I am 95% reliant on my own unique perspective on draft prospects. I do cautiously parse through the opinions of draft experts but at the end of the day I take GREAT pride in my own individual perspective based on college basketball games that I watched about 9 months ago. Which of course leads to large gaps in knowledge and also much source of comedy when looking back on my own draft analysis many years from now.
So enough already! Here are the draft grades!
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#1 - ANTHONY EDWARDS - MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Honestly, what are the Timberwolves doing. They cant possibly expect to win the NBA title after selecting Anthony Edwards. The only real goal in Minnesota appear to be keeping Karl Anthony-Towns in Minnesota.
They traded for his overpaid best friend last year. Despite said best friends defensive and rim finishing deficiencies. Than, they passed on even interviewing or working out James Wiseman, for fear of upsetting their fragile-minded-adversity-adverse "superstar" who plays the same position.
And so, what do they have now after drafting Anthony Edwards?
Well, they now have a highly paid rookie, with low basketball IQ and a questionable motor to play alongside two highly paid veterans who also have a low basketball IQ and questionable motors. So forgive me if I am not understanding what exactly the Timberwolves accomplished here.
James Wiseman should have been the selection here. His upside is far greater than Anthony Edwards. And to those who argue that Edwards is a better fit in Minnesota, I would argue that D'Lo and KAT are not the answer, thus negating any necessity of fit.
I dont like Edwards at all. He does not do any of the things that winning basketball players do. His Georgia team was a gigantic mess last season, and in large part because of him. He isn't committed to a winning style of basketball play and I don't see how Minnesota ever gets him there.
You had #1 pick. You should be selecting the #1 player. As in, the guy that is most likely to drastically improve your title hopes. And that guy is Wiseman, not Edwards.
Grade = F
#2 JAMES WISEMAN - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
I think that Wiseman has the biggest upside of any player in this draft. I think he is the one player in the draft that could honestly move an NBA title needle towards the team that drafted him. I think that his floor is still a very nice NBA piece and his ceiling is a top 5-15 player.
I think this was a very simple selection for the Warriors.
Grade = A+
#3 LAMELO BALL - CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Look, I understand the deal here. The Hornets will never realistically have a shot at winning an NBA title. So Lamelo was drafted to put butts in the Charlotte seats and eyeballs on the Hornets games.
And I am totally ok with that.
I personally think that Lamelo will be a lot better than people expect. I think he has enough awareness to know that he cant just give zero effort on the defensive end. I think that he will rise to the occasion, just like his brother did, and begin to learn the intricacies of being an NBA defender.
I also like that there is nobody to really get in his way as a lead playmaker. I like that he will get lots of reps early and I look forward to watching it.
Grade = A
#4 PATRICK WILLIAMS - CHICAGO BULLS
I admit that I have been a little bullish on the two Florida State players, but in my defense, Leonard Hamilton plays a very unique style of basketball. Everyone who plays for FSU is long wiry and athletic. They play a frenetic style of basketball, and make a lot of substitutions and it is kind of hard to keep track of which player is which. Let alone which players are playing well.
So forgive me if I kind of lost track of who exactly Patrick Williams and Devin Vassel were when I watched college basketball last season.
To help make up for my confusion I watched highlight films of both players after the draft concluded. I had been critical of both players based on limited knowledge and I needed to get to the bottom of it.
I really do see it and get it. Both players do have some special abilities. Particularly Williams, who already at 19 has a really big, long, strong and athletic NBA body. I understand why his NBA potential is so tantalizing.
But I hate the pick.
I mean the guy wasn't even a starter on his college team. And you just drafted him 4th overall? Get out of here.
The draft experts made it clear; "this guys shooting is not there yet," "this guys ability to guard the ball is not there yet," "this guys playmaking and decision making have only been seen in flashes."
So, why would you go for all of that and not Deni Avijdi? The Israelian is the same height, same weight, same age and projects to play the same position as Williams. They both share the same question marks about their shooting, yet Avijdi has showcased SO much more than Williams ever has.
The experience, as Israel's top youth player for many years and professional player at age 19, combined with a clear defensive skill set and the potential of not just good, but elite, decision making, make Avijda the better prospect.
Yes Williams will always be able to jump higher than Avijda, but the Isralian is built tougher between the ears and that will play out in his favor over the course of their NBA careers.
Bulls, im sorry, but you overthought it. Deni was the pick.
Grade = D-
#5 - ISSAC OKORO
This pick grade is simple. If Okoro develops his jumpshot it will be an A+++. And if he doesn't, it will be an D-.
Okoro really has everything that you would want in a prospect. (Besides the jumpshot.) While I personally think he could finish better at the rim, he already gets to the FT lane at a high rate and he does shoot a high percentage at the rim. Combined with his truly elite defensive ability and impressive measurables and its no stretch of the imagination to think that Okoro could develop into a player similar to Jimmy Butler.
Its a weird fit in Cleveland, but this is a long term play.
Grade = A+ (but will be an D- if Okoro never figures out how to shoot)
#6 - ONYEKA OKUNGWU
I was luke warm on this player in the pre-draft, but now I am totally out after he was drafted by the Hawks.
If you are Atlanta, you just traded for Clint Capela last season and drafted Bruno Fernando in the lottery last year. Hello! All of these players play the same position. Where exactly do you plan on playing Okungwu, your 6th overall pick? And don't say together, because none of these players, especially not Okungwu, can play the 4.
If you wanted a guy to be another screen and roll big for Trae Young, why in the world wouldn't you have taken Obi Toppin? Not only would he literally look like Amare Stoudamire playing next to Trae, he could easily play alongside Capela or Fernando at the 4, while also playing minutes at the 5.
You are saying you want to make the playoffs this year, yet you just drafted a third string player to your roster. Why didn't you go for the 22 year old Topin, and build the modern incarnation of Nash and Stoudamire? What need do you have for an undersized 5 with an archaic post game.
Add in the Deandre Hunter pick last year and its no wonder Atlanta never wins anything.
Grade = F
#7 KILLIAN HAYES - DETROIT PISTONS
All I really know is two things. One, that Hayes cant dribble with his right hand and two, that I will never see Killlian Hayes play. I probably haven't seen a Detroit Pistons game in about 7 years.
Grade = C
#8 OBI TOPPIN - NEW YORK KNICKS
I really liked Obi Toppin's fit in Atlanta, but I am not so sure about New York. I am most concerned that Tom Thibedou will not play Obi because of the defensive issues.
Are they going to clash, or is Thibs going to let Obi play?
Because if he lets Obi play than I think he will be the rookie of the year. He is an electric offensive player. His dunks are going to be all over sportscenter. He is going to be a spark that New York desperately needs.
And if Thibs just cant overlook the tight hips, he obviously wont.
Similar to David Lee, I do think that Topping will eventually be will be a fun story in New York, but ultimately he will never help them win anything meaningful.
Grade = C
#9 DENI AVIJDA - WASHINGTON WIZARDS
What more can I say, I really like Deni Avijda. I understand that he will likely never be a true star or all-NBA player, but I do value that he is an actual real basketball player.
He is the one player in this draft most likely to do the things on a basketball court that actually lead to winning basketball games. Making good decisions on the offensive end, seeing the floor defensively and making crisp accurate rotations. Being a tough and confident team inspiring leader.
There is also a very real chance that his jump shot comes together. This is not an Okoro situation where the mechanics and confidence need an overhaul. Deni has sound, albeit inconsistent mechanics, and all the confidence in the world.
I am totally fine with selecting the bigger upside players Wiseman, Ball and Lamelo, despite of their warts, but I felt like Avijda was firmly the 4th best prospect in the draft. I also feel like he will ultimately be the best player selected in this draft. Getting him at 9th is crazy to me.
I am sorry picks 4-8, you all over thought it!
Grade = A+ (best pick in draft)
#10 JALEN SMITH - PHOENIX SUNS
This is another pick that I really like. The Suns are ready to win now and Jalen Smith can help them do that.
At 6'11, with elite rim protection and elite shooting, Smith will be a perfect chess piece for Monty Williams. He can play some minutes alongside Deandre Ayton at the four and than serve primarily as his backup at the 5. Smith's pick and pop ability will be a nasty combination with Cam Johnson on the second unit. The floor will be wide open for Devin Booker to attack.
I don't see any high upside players that Phoenix missed out on with this pick either. Precious Achiuwa probably is the guy that could have fit here as well, but the Suns clearly value shooting and length above all else.
The Suns basically just drafted Channing Frye with much better rim protection, and I love it.
Grade = A+
#11 DEVIN VASELL - SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Who am I to question the Spurs. Popovich and co. and sneaky building an awesome collection of backcourt players. Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones and bring different things to the table while also all sharing rangy, athletic defensive abilities. I am kind of looking forward to seeing how it all comes together in San Antonio.
Grade = B
#12 TYRESE HALLIBURTON - SACRAMENTO KINGS
I have to admit that I felt super validated watching Halliburton slide in the NBA draft. Assuming NBA teams, with their infinite budgets and scouts analytic departments are better at assessing players than the common fan or draft guy, Halliburton's slide does seem to indicate that the public perception of him was false.
The top 11 teams, all of whom drafted much bigger, longer and stronger players must have seen it the same way that I did. Halliburton is not actually very good!
So while everyone is praising the Kings for the value that they got with these pick, I am going the other way. They are the suckers are the party that ate the cookie that everyone else knew had been dropped on the floor a couple of times.
Grade = F
#13 KIRA LEWIS JR
Look, I honestly have no idea. If he really is as fast as advertised and if he really can shoot, than great. That sounds super fun alongside Zion and Jaxon Hayes. The 165 pound thing is concerning. There is a legitimate chance that Saddiq Bey or Cole Anthony could turn into better players. There is also an argument to be made that Nesmith would have been a nice piece to put alongside Zion long term.
Grade = C
#14 AARON NESMITH
I mean he is going to stand in a corner and gun away threes. What more is there really to asses here. Hopefully he will not be a weak link on defense. I am a little worried about the possibilities of him being Anthony Morrow.
Why not draft Precious Achiuwa?
Grade = C
#15 #16 #17 - COLE ANTHONY, ISIAH STEWART AND POKUSEVSKI
All receive grades of F because they did not select Saddiq Bey or Precious Achiuwa.
Grade = F
#18 - JOSH GREEN - ARIZONA WILDACTS
To be clear, Josh Green was not like super impressive at Arizona last year. He looked clunky, boxy and confused. His processing speed seemed slow. He didnt really know what to do are where to go. But he could really defend the ball. He is an impressive athlete.
So I think Dallas, and this is really just a credit to Luca Doncic, is a really good fit for him. They should be able to develop him into a defensive wing stopper while keeping things incredibly simple for him on offense.
And for these reasons, I really like the pick even though I didn't previously like the player.
Grade = A
#19 - SADDIQ BEY - DETROIT PISTONS
I love it because he will at least be a solid NBA player. All Villanova players are. I hate that I will never see him play because I haven't seen Detroit play basketball in about 7 years. Seriously, Luke Kennard got traded to the Clippers and I had forgotten that he even existed.
Grade = A
#20 - PRECIOUS ACHIUWA - MIAMI HEAT
We finally made it! To the only pick that I really wanted to talk about. What an amazing pick by the Miami Heat! Precious checks all of the boxes:
First, Achiuwa clearly helps them win an NBA title. What was the #1 flaw in the NBA finals? (besides injury) An ability to guard bigger players. And Precious is one of the very few players out there with the size and athleticism to guard both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Not to mention Giannis as well. So Achiuwa will not doubt improve his teams ability to win the NBA title.
Second, Achiuwa is both a high ceiling AND a high floor guy. At the very least he can be Montrez Harrell. At the very least. He has the same kind of motor and strength finishing around the rim. And he is much bigger with much more athletic than Montrez. And at the very best, Achiuwa is a switch everything and guard anybody defender, who can be devestating in transition, can attack closeouts off the bounce and hit the occasional three while playing next to Bam Adebayo.
If Achiuwa reaches his potential, the Heat will have the best frontcourt in the NBA, hands down.
I will admit that Achiuwa needed to be in the right situation to be successful. He is 19 and wants to be a SF, when he clearly is a PF and small-ball C. He needed to land in an infrastructure where he would shut up and do whatever his coach asks of him. The Miami Heat will keep him in shape, accountable on defense and playing within a role suited for him better than say the Kings or Magic would do.
However, if I just had picks 11-19, what the heck was a I doing? The Spurs didnt feel like they could develop Achiuwa into the perfect modern front court player? Ditto for the Trail Blazers.
Are we sure that Pelicans will be better off with Kira Lewis rather than creating a freakazoid front court trio of Achiuwa, Zion and Hayes?
The Magic have drafted Achiuwa types over and over again, yet they draw the line here? And for teeny tiny Cole Anthony?
We dont think that Brad Stevens would have loved to add Achiuwa's size length and defensive ability to his collection of wings with size length and defensive ability? Are we really rolling Daniel Theis out there again? Why not add Achiuwa! Was Nesmith just too valuable!?
So I dont know, to me, Achiuwa is going to be the steal of the draft. Its NBA obsession with shooting gone wrong. I mean just say it out loud with me, "Precious Achiuwa is 6'9 225 pounds with a 7'3 wingspan, is one of the best defensive players in the draft and plays his ass off." What am I missing here!
REMAINING PICKS
Not many of the remaining picks moved the needle for me...
I really like Immanuel Quickley. I never agreed with the 2nd round grades he was receiving. I feel validated in my own assessment because he went 25th overall. Look, he was the best player at Kentucky last year by far. Not Tyreese Maxey. Anybody that watched Kentucky knows this. He has a long wingspan and can shoot and defend.
Malachi Flynn is just a crazy good fit in Toronto. Masai and Nick Nurse clearly have a player type. They like everyone on the floor to be playmakers who can also create their own shot when needed. They love attacking with different guys on different nights and they love going after matchups. They are also very exotic on defense so they need high IQ players who can adapt night to night. Even though Flynn is undersized, he really does check all of those boxes to a T.
I will be rooting for Payton Pritchard. I mean what college basketball fan cant. There is a chance he carves out like a solid 7th man spot on a roster. I think Flynn will be better, but I am not here to trash Pritchard. I want him to do well.
I was not big on Tyrell Terry. His film at Stanford is a joke for an NBA lottery pick. However, his fit in Dallas is undeniable. It is credit to Luca, but Terry's role will be so, so very simple. He literally just has to be Seth Curry, and can evolve into being a JJ Barea. Its a shockingly nice fit with Dallas.
I think Jordan Nwora could be a relevant NBA player if he can get his head out of his ass. He reminds me of Dillan Brooks if Dillan Brooks only tried hard every 3rd or 4th game.
Final assessment is Nico Mannion. Look, he was projected to go top 10 and he went 48th. That automatically makes it a great value pick. But, there is a reason he slid way down the draft. A stat line of 14/6/3 looks pretty good for a true freshman. But you have to take into account the fact that Sean Miller played his star recruit almost the whole game.
When you look at the advanced stats, there is cause for concern as well. The 52% TS% is really bad. His defensive metrics are ok but not amazing. His assist percentage however is fantastic, at 31%, with only a 16% turnover. He clearly takes care of the ball.
And than there is just the eye test. Nico is just a little shaky at all of the following; scoring off the dribble, creating his own shot, finishing at the rim (he settles for floaters) and guarding bigger players. You add all of those small deficiencies together and you can see why NBA teams are concerned.
Best case scenario, Nico blossoms into the electric passer and scorer he was on the AAU circuit the moment he leaves Sean Millers constrictive offensive setup. At his best he is a very athletic point guard with size shooting ability and a very nice passing ability.
More likely that not, he is the same player we just saw at Arizona 9 months ago and will need much G-leauge seasoning.
