2020 NBA Draft Grades

Before I begin, I would like to point out how absolutely ridiculous it is to grade the picks of a draft. Imagine being a sportswriter and having the audacity to "grade" the selections made by professional sports teams. What you are essentially saying is that 30 NBA franchises, each worth billions of dollars, and all of whom have carte blanche access to the smartest basketball minds in the entire world, PALE! in comparison to your all mighty knowledge and ability to forecast the future of 19 year old basketball players. 

Right. 

To pick on just Jeremy Woo of Si.com for example. Here is a quick summary of his last three years worth of draft grades (skipping 2019 because that was to recent to make fun of)...

In 2016, he gave Jaylen Brown a B- and Dragan Bender a resounding A. Bender was seen as the "best player available," with Jamal Murray and Domontas Sabonis still on the board, while Brown was seen a a player with "many offensive question marks." Late in the draft he dishes out an A to for Brice Johnson followed up by a C+ for Pascal Siakim. He quote, "wishes the Raptors had gone with a guy like Deonta Davis." 

In 2017, he gave the top 6 draft selections an A. Those selections included Markelle Futlz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson and Jonathon Issac. Conversely, the 7th pick, Lauri Markanen received a C+ because" all around skill set needs a lot of work." Justin Patton was a "perfect" pick for the Timberwolves at #16. 

The 13th overall and 14th overall selections were given grades of A- and B+ respectively, while the 30th pick was given an A+. The 13th pick was Donovan Mitchell, the 14th picks was Bam Adebayo and the 30th pick was Josh Hart. Adebayo was seen as a "safe" pick taken ahead of a "slew of other talented bigs."(He did nail the Derick White pick though with an A.)

In 2018, he gave A's for both the selection of Mo Bamba and Luca Doncic. Forgive me if I have a hard time shaking the feeling that the Luca pick was much more of an "A" than the Bamba pick. Woo than goes on to.... well, he actually did a really darn good job nailing the remainder of the 2018 draft. 

Anyways!

This all just goes to show the absolute absurdity of grading NBA draft picks. We have no idea! Sports Illustrated's top paid professional draft person has no idea, we have no idea and NBA teams, to a degree, have really no idea either. 

Without further ado, my 2020 NBA draft grades!!!...

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To be an NBA draft-pick-grader of any quality, you need to be up front about your perspective. Every single pick could be spun to an A or an F, depending upon which lense you are viewing it with. From my view, a draft graders philosophy can fall along three spectrum. 

The first spectrum being whether you value winning the NBA title, or whether you value just being a good NBA team. 

If you are in the first camp, and value the pursuit of an NBA title above all else, you will look upon this years draft quite critically. There is no Zion, no Luka, no Jayson Tatum. You know that no reasonable person could reasonably argue that a player in this draft moved the NBA title odds significantly towards his teams favor. Thus, from your perspective, this was a very poor draft, and most picks should be graded poorly. 

If you are in the second camp, and value being a good NBA team, just for the sake of being a good team, you will look upon this years draft quite favorably. There were a lot of high end role players selected and to you, these players will invariably have a positive affect on their team. You dont expect every team to win the NBA title anyways. You simply expect baby steps in the right direction. 

You are fully aware that only 3 players, Lebron James, Steph Curry and Kawahi Leonard have accounted for the last 9 consecutive NBA titles, and you do not fault any franchises for simply not having one of those three players under contract. Thus, from your perspective, this was actually an underrated draft, and most picks should be graded favorably. 

The second spectrum is what you tend to favor more when you evaluate talent. Are you an evaluator that can stomach the prospects of a high ceiling, low floor type of player? Or, do you have more of a high floor, low ceiling type of appetite.

For high ceiling, low floor types of people, the draft is all about landing a star. Every precious selection should be made on the player with the biggest upside. Go big or go home! After all, there are only two ways to acquire a star and one of them is the draft. Free agency is risky, stressful and requires much financial maneuvering and finagling. In the draft, all you have to do is nail the pick. From this perspective, the draft is all about "measurables" and flashes of skillsets that mimic current NBA stars. 

For high floor, and low ceiling types of people, the draft is simply about getting good players. They would rather come out of the draft with a good solid rotation player than take unnecessary risk and select a flop. After all, drafting a bust is a zero sum value proposition, while hitting on good players year after year can gradually build your team into something. (Post big three Spurs.) From this perspective, there is more of a "realistic" philosophy. See players for who they are and than select the ones who will fit into a role that your team needs. It is about not overthinking it. Its about going for the player that you know will be solid. 

The third and final spectrum is where you claim to aquire your expertise? Do you generally rely on the opinions and consensus of draft experts? Or do generally rely on the opinions of your own eyeballs. 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with being an expert on reading nba draft experts. Perhaps you are skilled at triangulating the opinions of various outlets and than putting together a sort of player composite in your head. That is totally fine, as you can acquire a nice depth of knowledge about a prospect.

But it also leaves you vulnerable to group-think. If a popular draft expert makes an incorrect assessment on a player, something that all talent evaluators inevitably do, and that assessment gets picked by other evaluators, than that incorrect assessment can quickly turn in to common public consensus. 

For example, if I write for ESPN and I begin to form a "gut feeling" on a player I may be motivated to write down my gut feeling about this player. And lets say that this feeling about a player is a a true gut feeling, as in it is beyond what statistics or raw data is capable of supporting. What is the reasonable expectation that this feeling will become truth? 50%? 75%? 100%??? (dont answer 100% unless you are out of your mind.)

And so, if you were to put this opinion up on ESPN's website, your high profile could than strongly influence the narrative built around a specific player. Even if that narrative is built upon a gut feeling that may not turn out to be true. 

To avoid the risk of group think, you could potentially fall into the other camp. The film watching camp. Whether its full games you watched during the college basketball season or even highlights that you recently found on youtube, coming from this perspective means that you like to trust the opinion of your own eyeballs. (And also that you have a lot of free time.)

Whichever method you use, it would be prudent for you to be clear to your readers where exactly you are coming from. Are you saying that you think this was a good/bad pick because it went for/against popular consensus? Or are you saying that this was a good/bad pick because you have a unique insight into why that was a good/bad pick.  

All of which is to bring us back full circle to what my personally grading philosophy is when grading all of these picks based on the three spectrums that I have just laid out. 

For me, I lean a 75% towards valuing the pursuit of an NBA title. I love watching good teams play, even if it that just means a solid 1st round playoff match up. But at the end of the day, shouldn't we all be trying to win a title? I mean the allure of the whole draft is that one pick can automatically overhaul the fortunes of a given franchise. So I will be grading most of the 2020 picks through the lens of, "did this move the needle on this teams title hopes?"

For the high ceiling vs high floor debate i am 50/50. I love a prospect with potential, but darnit if I dont love a player drafted to a team with an available role perfectly befitting of that players skillset. I will openly toggle between these two lenses. 

For my methods of acquiring knowledge, I am 95% reliant on my own unique perspective on draft prospects. I do cautiously parse through the opinions of draft experts but at the end of the day I take GREAT pride in my own individual perspective based on college basketball games that I watched about 9 months ago. Which of course leads to large gaps in knowledge and also much source of comedy when looking back on my own draft analysis many years from now. 

So enough already! Here are the draft grades!

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#1 - ANTHONY EDWARDS - MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Honestly, what are the Timberwolves doing. They cant possibly expect to win the NBA title after selecting Anthony Edwards. The only real goal in Minnesota appear to be keeping Karl Anthony-Towns in Minnesota. 

They traded for his overpaid best friend last year. Despite said best friends defensive and rim finishing deficiencies. Than, they passed on even interviewing or working out James Wiseman, for fear of upsetting their fragile-minded-adversity-adverse "superstar" who plays the same position.

And so, what do they have now after drafting Anthony Edwards?

Well, they now have a highly paid rookie, with low basketball IQ and a questionable motor to play alongside two highly paid veterans who also have a low basketball IQ and questionable motors. So forgive me if I am not understanding what exactly the Timberwolves accomplished here. 

James Wiseman should have been the selection here. His upside is far greater than Anthony Edwards. And to those who argue that Edwards is a better fit in Minnesota, I would argue that D'Lo and KAT are not the answer, thus negating any necessity of fit. 

I dont like Edwards at all. He does not do any of the things that winning basketball players do. His Georgia team was a gigantic mess last season, and in large part because of him. He isn't committed to a winning style of basketball play and I don't see how Minnesota ever gets him there. 

You had #1 pick. You should be selecting the #1 player. As in, the guy that is most likely to drastically improve your title hopes. And that guy is Wiseman, not Edwards.

Grade = F

#2 JAMES WISEMAN - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 

I think that Wiseman has the biggest upside of any player in this draft. I think he is the one player in the draft that could honestly move an NBA title needle towards the team that drafted him. I think that his floor is still a very nice NBA piece and his ceiling is a top 5-15 player. 

I think this was a very simple selection for the Warriors. 

Grade = A+

#3 LAMELO BALL - CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Look, I understand the deal here. The Hornets will never realistically have a shot at winning an NBA title. So Lamelo was drafted to put butts in the Charlotte seats and eyeballs on the Hornets games. 

And I am totally ok with that. 

I personally think that Lamelo will be a lot better than people expect. I think he has enough awareness to know that he cant just give zero effort on the defensive end. I think that he will rise to the occasion, just like his brother did, and begin to learn the intricacies of being an NBA defender. 

I also like that there is nobody to really get in his way as a lead playmaker. I like that he will get lots of reps early and I look forward to watching it. 

Grade = A

#4 PATRICK WILLIAMS - CHICAGO BULLS

I admit that I have been a little bullish on the two Florida State players, but in my defense, Leonard Hamilton plays a very unique style of basketball. Everyone who plays for FSU is long wiry and athletic. They play a frenetic style of basketball, and make a lot of substitutions and it is kind of hard to keep track of which player is which. Let alone which players are playing well. 

So forgive me if I kind of lost track of who exactly Patrick Williams and Devin Vassel were when I watched college basketball last season. 

To help make up for my confusion I watched highlight films of both players after the draft concluded. I had been critical of both players based on limited knowledge and I needed to get to the bottom of it. 

I really do see it and get it. Both players do have some special abilities. Particularly Williams, who already at 19 has a really big, long, strong and athletic NBA body. I understand why his NBA potential is so tantalizing. 

But I hate the pick. 

I mean the guy wasn't even a starter on his college team. And you just drafted him 4th overall? Get out of here. 

The draft experts made it clear; "this guys shooting is not there yet," "this guys ability to guard the ball is not there yet," "this guys playmaking and decision making have only been seen in flashes."

So, why would you go for all of that and not Deni Avijdi? The Israelian is the same height, same weight, same age and projects to play the same position as Williams. They both share the same question marks about their shooting, yet Avijdi has showcased SO much more than Williams ever has. 

The experience, as Israel's top youth player for many years and professional player at age 19, combined with a clear defensive skill set and the potential of not just good, but elite, decision making, make Avijda the better prospect. 

Yes Williams will always be able to jump higher than Avijda, but the Isralian is built tougher between the ears and that will play out in his favor over the course of their NBA careers. 

Bulls, im sorry, but you overthought it. Deni was the pick. 

Grade = D-

#5 - ISSAC OKORO 

This pick grade is simple. If Okoro develops his jumpshot it will be an A+++. And if he doesn't, it will be an D-. 

Okoro really has everything that you would want in a prospect. (Besides the jumpshot.) While I personally think he could finish better at the rim, he already gets to the FT lane at a high rate and he does shoot a high percentage at the rim. Combined with his truly elite defensive ability and impressive measurables and its no stretch of the imagination to think that Okoro could develop into a player similar to Jimmy Butler. 

Its a weird fit in Cleveland, but this is a long term play. 

Grade = A+ (but will be an D- if Okoro never figures out how to shoot)

#6 - ONYEKA OKUNGWU

I was luke warm on this player in the pre-draft, but now I am totally out after he was drafted by the Hawks. 

If you are Atlanta, you just traded for Clint Capela last season and drafted Bruno Fernando in the lottery last year. Hello! All of these players play the same position. Where exactly do you plan on playing Okungwu, your 6th overall pick? And don't say together, because none of these players, especially not Okungwu, can play the 4. 

If you wanted a guy to be another screen and roll big for Trae Young, why in the world wouldn't you have taken Obi Toppin? Not only would he literally look like Amare Stoudamire playing next to Trae, he could easily play alongside Capela or Fernando at the 4, while also playing minutes at the 5. 

You are saying you want to make the playoffs this year, yet you just drafted a third string player to your roster. Why didn't you go for the 22 year old Topin, and build the modern incarnation of Nash and Stoudamire? What need do you have for an undersized 5 with an archaic post game. 

Add in the Deandre Hunter pick last year and its no wonder Atlanta never wins anything. 

Grade = F

#7 KILLIAN HAYES - DETROIT PISTONS

All I really know is two things. One, that Hayes cant dribble with his right hand and two, that I will never see Killlian Hayes play. I probably haven't seen a Detroit Pistons game in about 7 years. 

Grade = C

#8 OBI TOPPIN - NEW YORK KNICKS 

I really liked Obi Toppin's fit in Atlanta, but I am not so sure about New York. I am most concerned that Tom Thibedou will not play Obi because of the defensive issues.

Are they going to clash, or is Thibs going to let Obi play? 

Because if he lets Obi play than I think he will be the rookie of the year. He is an electric offensive player. His dunks are going to be all over sportscenter. He is going to be a spark that New York desperately needs. 

And if Thibs just cant overlook the tight hips, he obviously wont. 

Similar to David Lee, I do think that Topping will eventually be will be a fun story in New York, but ultimately he will never help them win anything meaningful. 

Grade = C 

#9 DENI AVIJDA - WASHINGTON WIZARDS

What more can I say, I really like Deni Avijda. I understand that he will likely never be a true star or all-NBA player, but I do value that he is an actual real basketball player. 

He is the one player in this draft most likely to do the things on a basketball court that actually lead to winning basketball games. Making good decisions on the offensive end, seeing the floor defensively and making crisp accurate rotations. Being a tough and confident team inspiring leader. 

There is also a very real chance that his jump shot comes together. This is not an Okoro situation where the mechanics and confidence need an overhaul. Deni has sound, albeit inconsistent mechanics, and all the confidence in the world. 

I am totally fine with selecting the bigger upside players Wiseman, Ball and Lamelo, despite of their warts, but I felt like Avijda was firmly the 4th best prospect in the draft. I also feel like he will ultimately be the best player selected in this draft. Getting him at 9th is crazy to me. 

I am sorry picks 4-8, you all over thought it!

Grade = A+ (best pick in draft)

#10 JALEN SMITH - PHOENIX SUNS 

This is another pick that I really like. The Suns are ready to win now and Jalen Smith can help them do that. 

At 6'11, with elite rim protection and elite shooting, Smith will be a perfect chess piece for Monty Williams. He can play some minutes alongside Deandre Ayton at the four and than serve primarily as his backup at the 5. Smith's pick and pop ability will be a nasty combination with Cam Johnson on the second unit. The floor will be wide open for Devin Booker to attack. 

I don't see any high upside players that Phoenix missed out on with this pick either. Precious Achiuwa probably is the guy that could have fit here as well, but the Suns clearly value shooting and length above all else. 

The Suns basically just drafted Channing Frye with much better rim protection, and I love it. 

Grade = A+

#11 DEVIN VASELL - SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Who am I to question the Spurs. Popovich and co. and sneaky building an awesome collection of backcourt players. Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones and bring different things to the table while also all sharing rangy, athletic defensive abilities. I am kind of looking forward to seeing how it all comes together in San Antonio. 

Grade = B

#12 TYRESE HALLIBURTON - SACRAMENTO KINGS

I have to admit that I felt super validated watching Halliburton slide in the NBA draft. Assuming NBA teams, with their infinite budgets and scouts analytic departments are better at assessing players than the common fan or draft guy, Halliburton's slide does seem to indicate that the public perception of him was false. 

The top 11 teams, all of whom drafted much bigger, longer and stronger players must have seen it the same way that I did. Halliburton is not actually very good!

So while everyone is praising the Kings for the value that they got with these pick, I am going the other way. They are the suckers are the party that ate the cookie that everyone else knew had been dropped on the floor a couple of times. 

Grade = F

#13 KIRA LEWIS JR

Look, I honestly have no idea. If he really is as fast as advertised and if he really can shoot, than great. That sounds super fun alongside Zion and Jaxon Hayes. The 165 pound thing is concerning. There is a legitimate chance that Saddiq Bey or Cole Anthony could turn into better players. There is also an argument to be made that Nesmith would have been a nice piece to put alongside Zion long term. 

Grade = C

#14 AARON NESMITH

I mean he is going to stand in a corner and gun away threes. What more is there really to asses here. Hopefully he will not be a weak link on defense. I am a little worried about the possibilities of him being Anthony Morrow. 

Why not draft Precious Achiuwa?

Grade = C

#15 #16 #17 - COLE ANTHONY, ISIAH STEWART AND POKUSEVSKI

All receive grades of F because they did not select Saddiq Bey or Precious Achiuwa. 

Grade = F

#18 - JOSH GREEN - ARIZONA WILDACTS

To be clear, Josh Green was not like super impressive at Arizona last year. He looked clunky, boxy and confused. His processing speed seemed slow. He didnt really know what to do are where to go. But he could really defend the ball. He is an impressive athlete.

So I think Dallas, and this is really just a credit to Luca Doncic, is a really good fit for him. They should be able to develop him into a defensive wing stopper while keeping things incredibly simple for him on offense. 

And for these reasons, I really like the pick even though I didn't previously like the player. 

Grade = A

#19 - SADDIQ BEY - DETROIT PISTONS

I love it because he will at least be a solid NBA player. All Villanova players are. I hate that I will never see him play because I haven't seen Detroit play basketball in about 7 years. Seriously, Luke Kennard got traded to the Clippers and I had forgotten that he even existed. 

Grade = A

#20 - PRECIOUS ACHIUWA - MIAMI HEAT 

We finally made it! To the only pick that I really wanted to talk about. What an amazing pick by the Miami Heat! Precious checks all of the boxes:

First, Achiuwa clearly helps them win an NBA title. What was the #1 flaw in the NBA finals? (besides injury) An ability to guard bigger players. And Precious is one of the very few players out there with the size and athleticism to guard both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Not to mention Giannis as well. So Achiuwa will not doubt improve his teams ability to win the NBA title. 

Second, Achiuwa is both a high ceiling AND a high floor guy. At the very least he can be Montrez Harrell. At the very least. He has the same kind of motor and strength finishing around the rim. And he is much bigger with much more athletic than Montrez. And at the very best, Achiuwa is a switch everything and guard anybody defender, who can be devestating in transition, can attack closeouts off the bounce and hit the occasional three while playing next to Bam Adebayo. 

If Achiuwa reaches his potential, the Heat will have the best frontcourt in the NBA, hands down. 

I will admit that Achiuwa needed to be in the right situation to be successful. He is 19 and wants to be a SF, when he clearly is a PF and small-ball C. He needed to land in an infrastructure where he would shut up and do whatever his coach asks of him. The Miami Heat will keep him in shape, accountable on defense and playing within a role suited for him better than say the Kings or Magic would do. 

However, if I just had picks 11-19, what the heck was a I doing? The Spurs didnt feel like they could develop Achiuwa into the perfect modern front court player? Ditto for the Trail Blazers.

Are we sure that Pelicans will be better off with Kira Lewis rather than creating a freakazoid front court trio of Achiuwa, Zion and Hayes?

The Magic have drafted Achiuwa types over and over again, yet they draw the line here? And for teeny tiny Cole Anthony? 

We dont think that Brad Stevens would have loved to add Achiuwa's size length and defensive ability to his collection of wings with size length and defensive ability? Are we really rolling Daniel Theis out there again? Why not add Achiuwa! Was Nesmith just too valuable!?

So I dont know, to me, Achiuwa is going to be the steal of the draft. Its NBA obsession with shooting gone wrong. I mean just say it out loud with me, "Precious Achiuwa is 6'9 225 pounds with a 7'3 wingspan, is one of the best defensive players in the draft and plays his ass off." What am I missing here!

REMAINING PICKS 

Not many of the remaining picks moved the needle for me...

I really like Immanuel Quickley. I never agreed with the 2nd round grades he was receiving. I feel validated in my own assessment because he went 25th overall. Look, he was the best player at Kentucky last year by far. Not Tyreese Maxey. Anybody that watched Kentucky knows this. He has a long wingspan and can shoot and defend. 

Malachi Flynn is just a crazy good fit in Toronto. Masai and Nick Nurse clearly have a player type. They like everyone on the floor to be playmakers who can also create their own shot when needed. They love attacking with different guys on different nights and they love going after matchups. They are also very exotic on defense so they need high IQ players who can adapt night to night. Even though Flynn is undersized, he really does check all of those boxes to a T. 

I will be rooting for Payton Pritchard. I mean what college basketball fan cant. There is a chance he carves out like a solid 7th man spot on a roster. I think Flynn will be better, but I am not here to trash Pritchard. I want him to do well. 

I was not big on Tyrell Terry. His film at Stanford is a joke for an NBA lottery pick. However, his fit in Dallas is undeniable. It is credit to Luca, but Terry's role will be so, so very simple. He literally just has to be Seth Curry, and can evolve into being a JJ Barea. Its a shockingly nice fit with Dallas. 

I think Jordan Nwora could be a relevant NBA player if he can get his head out of his ass. He reminds me of Dillan Brooks if Dillan Brooks only tried hard every 3rd or 4th game. 

Final assessment is Nico Mannion. Look, he was projected to go top 10 and he went 48th. That automatically makes it a great value pick. But, there is a reason he slid way down the draft. A stat line of 14/6/3 looks pretty good for a true freshman. But you have to take into account the fact that Sean Miller played his star recruit almost the whole game. 

When you look at the advanced stats, there is cause for concern as well. The 52% TS% is really bad. His defensive metrics are ok but not amazing. His assist percentage however is fantastic, at 31%, with only a 16% turnover. He clearly takes care of the ball. 

And than there is just the eye test. Nico is just a little shaky at all of the following; scoring off the dribble, creating his own shot, finishing at the rim (he settles for floaters) and guarding bigger players. You add all of those small deficiencies together and you can see why NBA teams are concerned. 

Best case scenario, Nico blossoms into the electric passer and scorer he was on the AAU circuit the moment he leaves Sean Millers constrictive offensive setup. At his best he is a very athletic point guard with size shooting ability and a very nice passing ability. 

More likely that not, he is the same player we just saw at Arizona 9 months ago and will need much G-leauge seasoning. 

A Deni Avijda Update

UPDATE:

Ok, since I am bored out of my mind this week, I decided to bite the bullet and just do it.

I got on youtube and watched Deni Avijda play in the U20 European semifinal game against France and championship game against Spain. The necessity for this just ended up being to great to deny. I have been so intrigued by Avijda that I just had to see him for my own eyes.

**Not to mention the heightening realization that Deni is very likely to end up playing for my Golden State Warriors**

For some context here, the U20 European Championship is basically the European equivalent of the NCAA Final Four. While most of the players in the competition were 19 or freshly turned 20, Deni was 17. He was the Most Valuable Player of the tournament and led Israel to a surprising championship victory.

Watching these games has significantly changed my perspective on Deni.

The most dramatic thing that I realized while watching was the absurdity of the narratives that we all develop about prospects. NONE of us. And I really mean NONE of us, actually sit down and watch full game tape tip to tip. And why would we? We are media members with deadlines, or armchair fans of the NBA. None of us actually have the time to watch full game tape of every NBA lottery prospect.

Because of this, 99% of the narrative on players come from generalizations. And these generalizations come from the following areas; statistics; highlight videos; big games on national TV and groupthink generated by "draft experts."

All of these generalizations are in play when talking about Deni Avijda. (You can even see evidence of it in what I had previously written on Deni)

First, the stats of an 18 year old playing in a professional basketball league are not indicitive of that players FUTURE talent. Just like you wouldn't have said Kobe Bryant sucks because he averaged 7ppg as an 18 year old rookie, you wouldnt say Deni sucks for scoring 4ppg in his first professional season either. Obi Toppin is better than Deni, just because he scored 20ppg as a 22 year old in a mid-major conference isn't apples to apples either.

The same logic applies to his 22% shooting percentage as well. Are we really going to label this kid as a poor shooter based on 47 attempts as an 18 year old finding his way in a professional league? His play in the U20's has to be factored in as well. In each of the games that I watched he repeatedly took and made tough three point shots in key moments. He clearly has confidence in his own shot. (He shot 5/12 from 3 in the two games I watched)

Further, American fans have never actually SEEN Deni play. Even I was very surprised at how much different Deni was than I had projected in my head. He is an alpha on the basketball court, drawing all eyes magnetically to him. He is a 6'9 "pretty boy" who dictates the flow of the game with his size, skill and impressive passing ability. His body language teeters between antagonistic hollywood jock and hometown heart throb hero.

He is both Daniel San and Johnny Lawrence at the same time. If he was know to the american public, he would be a teenage sensation. The narrative around him in this draft would be totally different.

But instead, he is a giant question mark. And in an odd way, I feel like like this is because of comparisons to Luca Doncic. Yes, they are both 6'9 can both handle the ball and are of course both European, but they are very different players. Anybody watching Deni for the first time, expecting to see the next Luca will be seriously disappointed. I do think that feeling of disappointment is hurting Avijda's perception to some degree.

What is not being disccused however, and what I believe to be the most encouraging about Deni, is the thing he does have in common with Luca. Both are sons of former high level European basketball players, and professional athlete mothers, and both carry an expectation to become the best players to ever come from their respective countries. They are essentially the Lebron James' of Slovenia and Israel.

I really like this. I like that they have carried expectations since a young age to be a historically great player. And I LOVE that they have been guided through this process by reliable parents/mentors who know what it takes to make a living as a professional athlete. (A la' Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki and Danillo Gallinari to name a few)

And everything that Deni has done thus far DOES indicate that he will fulfill his Isralian prophecy. At 17 he won the U20's title, at 18 he joined the top pro team in Israel and at 19 he will be an NBA lottery pick. To me, this is a great indicator of future success. Deni has shown us the last 3 years that he can accept high expectations and than deliver. I like the psychology behind that. And I think it is meaningful as he attempts to establish himself as an NBA star.

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So the question becomes should somebody, maybe even the Warriors, select Deni Avijda over somebody like James Wiseman? And to that question, I am undecided.

Deni most CERTAINLY has his warts. He is 6'9 but has gator arms, limiting his defense, rebounding and rim protection somewhat. His ballhandling is definitely good, but I would not categorize it as great. He dribbles a little too high for my liking and appears to have a strong tendency to go right. He also does not have great "bounce" although he is coordinated and takes good angles. He could stand to improve his overall balance.

So there is a very real chance that he is not quite long enough, not quite skilled enough and not quite athletic enough. All of those things could add up to him being a below average player. He is a prospect that still has to put everything together.

So does that sound like somebody a GM would be willing to take over a 7'1 superfreak like Wiseman?

Maybe.

On the one hand, Wiseman's role in the NBA is really not that hard to find. It is much easier for a team to find a low cost "5" than it is a low cost "wing." We have seen Daniel Theis, Montrez Harrell, Javalle McGee, Zaza Paculia and even Kevon Looney be more than effective "5s" in deep playoff runs. Even Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka last season were acquired relatively inexpensively by the Raptors. Not to mention non-lottery picks Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert and Jusef Nurkic.

Meanwhile, every single player in the NBA that stands at 6'7+ and can shoot a three is commanding piles of cash in free agency. And that is only if they are made available in the first place. (Hell, Andrew Wiggins makes $30 million a year.) And so wings are in much higher demand than 5's. And this is a major case for selecting Deni.

Additionally, Deni projects to be a winning basketball player. He already does the little things that are important to winning NBA finals games. He reads the floor offensively and defensively. Is a sharp and crisp decision maker and plays hard and plays with confidence. He is a major energy giver and not an energy taker.

Wiseman on the other hand has major question marks about whether he can ever develop into a guy with elite intangibles. In the few games we saw in college he struggled to understand what was going on at either end of the floor. He processed the game very slowly and generally relied on his otherworldly athleticism to impact the game. He made poor decisions and frequently reached beyond his capabilities. He most certainly has not proven that he can effect the game with his smarts, cunning or savvy. Things that show themselves as usefull year after year in the NBA finals. Just ask guys like Rajon Rondo, Shane Battier or David West.

On the other hand...

Arent we really overthinking this here??? Wiseman is an absolute freak. He has a 7'6 wingspan, rebounds, runs the floor protects the rim and is capable of flushing any alley oop that you put even remotely near him. Oh, and by the way, he is not a stiff. He is a very fluid and coordinated athlete that already can take a rebound coast to coast, score in the post at a pretty high level and even has a surprisingly nice looking jump shot.

So in summary....

I dont really know what to think!! I am not sure that I would have the balls to select Avijda OVER Wiseman, or even Ball or Edwards.

But I think that the contrarian in me is really hoping that Bob Meyers will.

2020 NBA Draft

I really like assessing players off of full game film. You just can learn so much more about a guy than you can from highlight films, or from what “draft” guys think. Unfortunately, this draft has quite a few players in it that I have never seen play a full game. This is rather unusual, as I typically try to watch multiple games of top prospects, whether in the NCAA or Euroleauge. 

In any event, I am sitting here in quarantine, pretty bored and thinking about the draft. In the past, I have posted my draft thoughts on twitter, because I like going back 2-3 years later and seeing what I wrote. Since I have the free time right now, I figured it would be fun to write an NBA draft blog post so that I could go back and laugh at myself 3 years from now. 

Without further ado, here are my NBA 2020 Draft Tiers….

TIER #1 - THE POTENTIAL NBA ALL-STARS 

1. James Wiseman - Memphis

Wiseman is my favorite prospect in this draft. He is an athletic marvel with a puppy dog’s demeanor. He is so big, so long and moves so well it is startling. If my Grandma watched one of his games, she would be able to figure out that he was a good player within about two minutes. 

What I like the most about him is that he is like a giant puppy dog. As in, he is a high energy people pleaser. He clearly wants to be coachable and to do his job correctly.  (Even if he doesn't always do his job correctly.) This is not always the case with big men, and I like this about Wiseman.

Also like a puppy however,  Wiseman tries to do some things that are beyond his capabilities. I remember a couple of times where he shot an 18 footer or went through an elaborate post up that made me think he was reaching outside of his strengths. He also tries to block everything on the defensive end which is kind of annoying. 

What really concerns me about Wiseman is his fit in the modern NBA. We just watched the Heat/Celtics and Lakers/Nuggets compete in the NBA final four. The only “bigs” capable of having success in these respective series were the superfreaks Davis, Jokic and Adebeyo. Beyond those players, each team struggled to find minutes for all other players above 6’10 (or under 6’5.) A trend that was represented in the previous playoff rounds as well.  

Is Wiseman capable of being one of those freakishly talented bigs? Or is he more like one of the players that did not carry his team to the final four; Joel Embiid; Deandre Ayton; Rudy Gobert. Or even worse, is he Javale McGee all over again. 

What position EXACTLY can Wiseman defend in the NBA final or championship series? Could he ever become an elite defender like Adebayo or Davis?

What separates Davis and Adebayo is that they are so versatile. They can “drop” back on ballscreens, corralling a 2v1 in a way that does not require help from the perimeter. They can occasionally switch onto ballhanders, moving their feet laterally and preventing high percentage 1v1 shots. They also can guard a position on the perimeter if the opponent plays 5 out like the Rockets or Bucks.

Adebayo and Davis are the perfect examples of a modern ‘5.” 

Jokic on the other hand, is an example of somebody who cant quite do all of these things, and as a result, limits his teams potential to win the title. (Of course Jokic still makes up for a lot on the offensive end.)

So what will Wiseman become?  

Well, in the 2-3 games I watched of him, he looked limited defending ballscreens He doesn't really know how to use his hands, or fake or jab at the ball handler like Brook Lopez does. He doesn't do a great job of keeping the ball in front of him and protecting the rim like Gobert does either. 

Further, he is not particularly amazing at moving his feet well laterally on the perimeter. Which is concerning if a team is expecting to switch him onto guards or even defend a perimeter player in an opponents small ball lineup. 

So it’s a bit of a gamble. On the one hand, he is SUPER athletic and he is only like 19 years old. Surely he will improve. But, on the other hand, players like Bam and Anthony Davis were already capable of doing spectacular things on the defensive end while still in college at Kentucky. So we really cant be CERTAIN that Wiseman will figure it out. 

And if you are a team planning on winning the NBA finals, are you really going to invest 8-10 million into Wiseman, knowing that he cant help you in the NBA finals? Not to mention the potential max contract that you will be obligated to give him with his second contract. There is a valid argument to be made for investing in a sure-thing-wing, rather than drafting Wiseman. (Which is probably why the top teams want to trade down!)

Ultimately, I still love Wiseman. Its a pretty crappy draft, and I feel like he is the best available player. I love his combination of physical tools and coachability.  I think the combo of those two things will make this a safe investment and quiet the concerns about the playoff issues. I think with time, he will improve. He has all the physical tools necessary to do so. He just has to learn how to do it. 

The final point to make here is that there is also at least like a 2% chance that Wiseman turns into Kevin Garnett (without the gritty demeanor) and about a 65% chance that he is a more athletic and much more skilled Deandre Jordan. Neither are 100% certainties, but it illustrates the ceiling on Wiseman, which is much higher than everyone else in the draft. 

2. Lamelo Ball 

All I have ever seen of Ball is highlight films. I have never seen him play a full game from start to finish. He looks remarkably skilled with the ball and the game appears to move in slow motion for him. He clearly has an elite feel for the game. Some of the things that he does well are really impressive; creating space, changing speeds, leading guys with a pass; his one handed passes and incredible dexterity with either hand. He is easily the most skilled player in this draft. And remember, this is a league that is now almost entirely built on skill!

On top of that, he is huge! He is 6’7 maybe even 6’8. That is a gigantic advantage when working out of a pick and roll. He can see over the top of the defense and make passes at an angle that someone such as his brother, at 6’5 or 6’6, cant quite make. So his prospects as a lead pick and roll player like D’angleo Russell or even Luca Doncic is very exciting. 

With all of that said, I personally have a habit of falling for this type of player time and time again. (See: Ball, Lonzo) I have fallen for this type of player so many times in fact that I even created a golden rule specifically for keeping me from falling head over heels from these types of players.

"You have to be elite from three OR in the key. You don't have to be both, but you cant be zero.”

At this time, Ball does not pass my golden rule. He is currently not consistent enough from three, and not strong enough at the rim. This will surely limit the possibility of him unlocking his creativity and passing abilities in the NBA. Ball appears to be a clear violator of my own golden rule.

And just to illustrate how obsessed I am with these types of players, (see: Russell, D'angelo) I will now argue against my own golden rule and try to make the case that Ball could still figure it out.

And there are signs that he could figure it out. He does have good touch from three and his shooting fundamentals are not a train wreck. Perhaps simply taking better shots will improve his percentages. He also is very creative around the rim, is long and has a nice floater. If he is able to overcome his allergy to contact, he could actually be pretty good. So if those two things come together, combined with very nice lateral quickness, well that's an NBA all-star!

Unfortunately that is probably looking at it with rose colored glasses. The reality is that Ball, just like Anthony Edwards, does NOT appear to be a winning basketball player. While I can not say for sure, because I have not watched the full games, it does to seem like he is committed to doing the little things that lead to winning. His Australian team was worst in the league after all, despite him scoring 15+ per game.

He seems to be doing it "for the gram" when I would prefer that my players do it for the title. Ball would have to completely overhaul his approach to the game, specifically the finer details, if he ever wants to be more than a good player on a bad team.

If I was an NBA franchise that was serious about winning an NBA title, I wouldn't touch him. No way. BUT if I was a struggling GM down on my luck and in need of a homerun, here is how I would talk myself into drafting him...

What is the defining feature of every top offense in the NBA? A highly skilled lead guard who can play out of ballscreens and get his teammates great shots. Lamelo has the highest skill level in this draft and is all ready a maestro playing out of the screen and roll.

Why exactly has Luca Doncic been a overwhelming success in his first two seasons? His combination of height, ballhandling and otherworldly passing simplifies the game for all of his teammates. Turning fringe role players into legitimate NBA rotation players. Lamelo has the same height, ballhandling and passing profile.

Technically speaking, Lamelo is the most "Luca-like" player in this draft. And we just saw what kind of impact a player like Luca can make on his franchise.

And that is how you talk yourself into Lamelo Ball.

3. Anthony Edwards - Georgia

It is not hard to figure out why Edwards is ranked so highly. His body and athleticism are much like current NBA all-stars. He also clearly has elite shot making ability. In the games that I watched, he clearly displayed shooting off of the dribble, a midrange game, creativity at the rim and a generally high ability to create space and get to the spots on the floor that he wanted. 

However,  Edwards basketball IQ at this point in time leaves a lot to be desired. There is a reason why Georgia, which just played a college basketball season with an NBA lottery pick, was not good. Edwards does none of the intangibles well.

His body language and energy level is “peculiar” to put it nicely. Offensively, he can score, but he disrupts the rhythm of the game. He does not make good decisions, he does not see the floor and he most certainly does not make his teammates better. He takes some remarkably terrible shots. Defensively, he is a giant mess. He does not understand very basic defensive concepts and in the games I watched he barely even tried. 

Unfortunately, someone in this draft has to pick Edwards. If he can mature, and is held accountable on the defensive end, he could easily be an NBA all-star. Even though his intangibles are lacking, the shot making is impressive. Remember, even guys like Klay Thompson struggle to do what Edwards can currently do. 

I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. I just dont think he is a winning basketball player. I think he is Dion Waiters all over again. If you are a franchise down on your luck, it is not a terrible idea to roll the dice on Edwards. I get that and I see that. There is always a very really chance to he matures and capitalizes on his immense potential. I just wouldn't invest any time or capital seeing if that could happen on my team.

TIER #2 - THE POTENTIALLY REALLY GOOD BUT NOT ALL-STARS

4. Deni Avidja

I have never seen Deni Avidja play a full game, I think…..

The long pause is because I regularly watch Euroleauge games, particularly Macabi Tel Aviv, and I don't ever remember a Deni Avidja. I remember Scottie Wilbekin and I even remember watching a game with Amare Stoudamire, but I do not remember Avidja. 

Now, the euroleague is much different than the NBA. On most teams rotations are deeper and it is more of a “team” oriented game than the NBA. Just to be part of a Euroleague rotation at the age of 18, like Avijda, is impressive. Most college freshman would stand NO chance in the Euroleague. 

But to watch a few of his games and not even remember who he was? I don't like that. 

And to all of those with the Luca Donic comparisons, please settle down. Doncic led his team to the Euroleauge title and was the MVP of the whole damn league at the same age that Deni is now. Avijda played 14 minutes per game, scoring 4 points per game with a 42/22/55 shooting split.

If you dont know already, those shooting splits are not good and the 22% three point shooting is particularly concerning. I got on youtube and watched a bunch of his jumpers and was not super encouraged. He has a really short stroke that lacks rhythm. There is not a lot of fluidity through his set point. He often flails his legs out which means he dosent transfer energy from the ground very well and lacks timing. So I am a little worried about his natural touch.

With all of that said, everything people are writing about him sounds very encouraging. He has adequate size at 6’9 and already looks “strong.” He looks ready to play in the NBA physically. Multiple draft sites say that he has been a star in the developmental systems in europe, which I love. It sounds like he has gotten a ton of reps as an “alpha male.” This could indicate that he “expects success” and is accustomed to being a star player. This is an attribute that i really like in prospects. (Still in on RJ Barrett) And also a possible explanation for playoff flameouts such as James Harden and Paul George, who were both late bloomers. 

Also, multiple draft sites say that he competes hard, knows how to play defense, can pass and play multiple positions. It really sounds like he is a winning basketball player who is committed to doing winning things. I love that he led Israel to a surprising U20 championship a the ripe age of 18.

So, as long as the draft writers are not speaking out of their asses, I do think that Deni will be a good player, although the shooting concerns and the aura that he is the next Luca concern me. I really wish I wasn't evaluating him blind because he sounds super intriguing. 

There is no way that I would take Avijda ahead of the three players in my first tier. Those players clearly have a higher ceiling. Even Anthony Edwards.

But, there is a legitimate chance that we look back and say “wow, so and so took _____ over Avijda!!?? Crazy.” Because I think that two out of the top 3 will flop, and we don't know who it will be yet.

But that's the deal. That's how drafts work. You have to go for the high ceiling guys when they are available in my opinion.

TIER #3 - ROLE PLAYERS

5. Precious Achiuwa - Memphis 

I am totally smitten with Precious Achiuma. Whatever game it was that he played on the Brooklyn Nets court, it was love at first sight. This is exactly the type of player that gets overlooked at all levels of basketball and I will tell you why. 

If you evaluate Precious through the lens of NBA all-star, yes, he leaves a lot to be desired. He is not a very good ballhandler and his jumpshot is “meh.” If you evaluate Precious through the lens of the current NBA, same problem, he does not appear to have enough skill level to fit the “typical” mold. 

But I would argue that this dude is an exception to the rule. 

For starters, this “dude” is all of 6’9 225 pound broad shouldered freakiness. Not to mention his 7'3 wingspan. He looked like a mini Dwight Howard playing against the poor Conference USA. He is super bouncy off the floor, a bowling ball in transition and a tenacious defender on the ball.

Furthermore, in his one season at Memphis he averaged a steal a game, two blocks per game and three! offensive rebounds per game. Not to mention TEN boards a game overall. That is freaking impressive. And finally, the dude plays his ass off. He is a straight bull in a china shop and he has a great nose for the ball. I have no concerns about him as a competitor and I would want that on my team. 

I think the best comp for him is a MUCH better Montrez Harell. Seriously. He can screen and roll like Harrell does, with the addition of being way stronger and much bouncier. He also plays with the same motor that Harrell does, which I consider to be one of the best in the NBA. 

But what really puts him over the top, to me, is his defense. He has a chance to be an elite ballscreen defender. Not only does he have really good hands, he could switch out on to guards as well. (something can not be said of former teammate James Wiseman.) If a team wants to go small, he is A DREAM small ball center. Not only will he be able to defend players bigger than him, but also players smaller than him out on the perimeter. All while still being able to screen and roll on the offensive end, or even play off the ball as a cutter. 

There is even a small chance that he develops into an average wing player. Which means that he would be able to guard opposing centers while also stretching them to the three point line while he is on offense. He can already attack in straight lines very well off the bounce. His jumper has some holes in it, but he really just needs to get that up to about 32 maybe 33% in order to be effective. 

I love Achiuma and think he is getting massively overlooked. What team wouldn't want to walk out of this draft with a bigger and more athletic Montrez Harrell? Precious probably will never be an all-star, but I could easily see a Brandon Clarke style of impact if he gets drafted by a team that knows how to use him. 

6. Isaac Okoro 

I watched a lot of Auburn the last two years. Obviously Okoro wasn't on the team two years ago, but I really like watching Bruce Pearl teams. I like their style of play. With that said, you would assume I have a good feel for Okoro, but I don’t. 

On the one hand, he is a no-brainer. He is really freaking good on the defensive end. He is long, he can really move his feet and he just “looks” like an elite NBA defender. Its not hard to envision him as a one-on-one stopper in the NBA. He is really good. 

But on the other hand, there are some question marks. He wanted to be a go-to-scorer at Auburn but it didn't really fit him. Sometimes it would work, as he would overpower guys to the rim, but other times it would look clunky. Like someone else should be doing what he was trying to do. It was a weird year for Auburn though. The expectations were high and Okoro was trying to be something he wasnt quite ready to be yet. 

Specifically, I never felt like he finished well “at” the rim. He always seemed to be like, shooting more difficult shots at the rim than he needed to. Like if he would just go aggressively to the rim, he would have a better chance than trying to finesse his way around somebody. (I do like that he gets the the free throw line)

Also, there were DEFINITELY times that he would hide from his jumpshot. Teams would just dare him to shoot it and he wouldn't. I just watched a youtube video of his jumper and the mechanics are concerning. There is no rhythm to the shot. His timing is all out of whack. Its all arms and no legs. He is also weak in the core. There might be some postural issues that could lead to injury down the road. 

He also is kind of a “straight line drive” kind of guy. He doesn't really have any wiggle. He doesn't really change speeds or use deception like you would want to see from an elite player. I think this will ultimately limit him to just being a role player and not a star. 

In summary, I would still draft him highly in this fairly weak draft. I at least know that I will be getting elite production on the defensive end. And if I can just clean up his shot with 500+ jumpers every day, than I could really have something. There is also about a 3% chance that Okoro turns into Jimmy Butler, which I would really like to have a lottery ticket for.

7. Onyeka Okungwu - USC

I am not super high on Okungwu overall. I do have him ranked 7th on my board however and here is why.

He was a consensus 5 star recruit out of Chino Hills and even won the California Mr. Basketball award twice. He was immediately USC's best player as a freshman and he won first team all pac-12 in his first season of college basketball. I like all of those things.

What I dont like is some of the narratives surrounding Okungwu.

The first being that Okungwu will actually be better than James Wiseman. I couldn't disagree more. Wiseman is 7'1 with a 7'6 wingspan. Okungqu is 6'8 with a 7'1 wingspan. There is a legitimate chance that Wiseman extends his game to the wing. Okungwu does not have the shooting ability or body mobility to realistically stretch out to the wing any time soon. He will be relegated to screen and rolls and archaic post ups for at least the start of his career and probably the duration.

These things will hurt Okungwu's chances of ever being elite. And it favors Wiseman.

Elite NBA bigs have elite measurables WHILE ALSO contributing to the offensive end beyond a screen and roll. Jokic, Adebayo and Draymond do it with their passing. Davis with his all around game. Gasol and Lopez with their shooting. Giannis, with, well, I mean he is nicknamed the freak for a reason.

Wiseman not only matches or exceeds the height and wingspan of all of these players, he has legitimate potential to contribute offensively similar to the names listed above. (in my opinion)

I dont see that in Okungwu. I see a player who is behind the elites in height and wingspan and who will be limited to screening, rolling and posting up.

The second narrative that I dont like is the comparison to Adebayo. Here is the premise; Adebayo's role in college was the same as Okungwu's in college. Once Adebayo got to the NBA, the Heat were able to unlock Adebayo's hidden passing talents. Okungwu will blossom in the same way that Adebayo did.

Its not terrible logic, but its not great either.

First off, a ton of players play the same role as Bam did in college. Nearly every team in america has a big strong rim running 5. So why, out of all of these players, is Onyeka expected to magically turn into Bam? Is it their actual playing style, or is it that they both have Nigerian sounding names?

I will concede that their per 40 minute stats in college are similar. So I am not saying that the comparison is WAY off base. But I am just not ready to outright expect Okungwu to BE Bam Adebayo.

I view Bam as more of a one-of-one outlier. Not a new type of NBA norm.

So, I am a bit up and down on Okungwu. I DO like the elite player pedigree. Two time California MR. Basketball and consensus 5 star recruit is awesome. I value those things. It is also great that draft people say he has a great attitude and worth ethic. For these reasons I do have him ranked 7th (in a crappy draft.)

But I personally dont see how he evolves into anything greater than what he already is. He dosent have elite size or length. He doesn't project to play on the perimeter and it is extremely unlikely that he magically goes from a one ast per game guy in college to a great NBA passer like Adebayo.

So I think he just kind of is what he is. An ok big, who should be able to defend pretty well and can screen and roll and post up in a league that doesn't really need post up players.

8. Saddiq Bey - Villanova 

Look, the Villanova pedigree speaks for itself. The Wilcats have produced high quality three and defense wings in like 4 straight drafts; Bridges, DiVencenzo, Paschall and Hart. The best part being that all of these Villanova players get signed to rookie deals, while the relatively same “type” of player is really expensive in free agency (Danny Green, Kelly Oubre and Trevor Ariza to name a few)

Why not just draft Saddiq Bey, who was a really highly recruited player for Villanova two years ago, and is now a 6’8 wing with a 45% three point percentage. 

I watch as many Villanova games as I can get my hands on because I love Villanova. Bey started the season a little clunky, but than started playing really well in Big East play. I remember thinking that the Big East tournament and March Madness would be good for him. He is such a classic Villanova player. Plays super hard, plays physical, great fundamentals, understands how to play defense and can shoot!

Will he ever be a star, probably not. But he is a winning basketball player and can be a damn good role player. Just like all of the Villanova players before him. I would use a high pick on Bey. 

8. Obi Toppin - Dayton 

I love Obi Toppin. I absolutely love him! I really think Dayton might have won the national championship last year if not for the pandemic. Every time I watched the Flyers they brought pure joy to my heart, and it was in large part because of Toppin. He can shoot, he can score in the paint, he passes a bit and he plays with remarkable energy! Honestly, it was kind of like watching prime Amare Stoudamrie with a better jump shot beat up a bunch of teenagers in the Atlantic 10. 

Unfortunately, and it broke my heart when I realized this, Obi might have the tightest hips I have ever seen. I mean, they just don’t move. Like, have you ever strained your neck and than tried to drive your car and you just cant do anything but look straight forward? Thats what Obi’s hips are like. They are just…. stuck. 

And I dont really know what he can do about it. I mean for one, get in a yoga class immediately, but for two, he has a long way to go to even be a remotely competent defender. NBA players are going to destroy him in one on one and in pick and rolls. 

I hate it because I love him, but serious teams will have to pass on Obi because of his tight hips and resulting defensive issues. If a non-contender takes him, I could see him receiving some serious media hype in his first year or two. He is a very exciting player. And he should be able to put up nice stats in the NBA. Maybe he even wins Rookie of the Year. He is 22 after all and a good offensive player.

The silver lining however is the defense. He is beyond unplayable in a playoff series, no matter how good he is on offense. 

TIER #3 - NEVER SEEN, RANKED HIGHLY, DOESN'T EXCITE ME

*I fully admit that I have never actually seen these players play a full game 

9. Tyrese Halliburton 

He weighs 175 pounds. 175. That is crazy skinny for a 6’5 guy. He was a three star recruit. He was the 177th ranked recruit overall. How many NBA stars do you know of that attended Iowa State?  How many NBA stars were former 3 star recruits? I watch a ton of college basketball and I had never heard of him until the draft.

This guy Halliburton averaged 6 points per game, just two seasons ago. 6! In his breakout year last year, his teams record was still below .500. I am not totally following the narrative here. How does a guy go from 3 star recruit, to 6 PPG to 15PPG on a losing team to "clearly a lock to be a good NBA player." I dont totally understand that.

I watched a youtube video of him and his jumpshot is whacky. I mean really whacky. How will he get that low release off with someone like KlayThompson closing him out. (Example of an average lengthed defensive two guard.) How will he ever shoot like that off of the dribble or in the midrange? I dont get it.

To me, this is classic group think gone wrong. NOBODY and I mean NOBODY was watching Iowa State basketball last year. Than, the draft comes around and a narrative around Halliburton starts to form. "Look at the 15/6/6 stat line, he is versatile!" "He is 6'5 with a 6'10 wingspan, he can guard anybody!" "He is super smart and has a high IQ because he has a nice smile and the consensus top 3 picks all have IQ question marks."

None of these are very legitimate arguments.

Halliburton played 38 minutes per game at Iowa State. Its not hard to get 5 boards a game when you play the whole damn game. He only rebounded 9% of the available boards when he was in the game, which is not very high. He has a great assist percentage. On 30% of his possessions he connects for an assist. But he also turned it over on 20% of his possessions

Just because you have a 6'10 wingspan does not automatically mean you can guard 1-4. Remember that Halliburton only weighs 175 pounds. How the heck would he have defended anybody on the Celtics, Lakers, Rockets or Nuggets last season?

I am really having a hard time figuring out what the hype is with Halliburton. Is it because he is a nice guy and all of the top players are not? So what. Nice guys finish last. I need a player that is at least 185 pounds, 175 is an embarrassing number for a 6’5 guy in the NBA. 

Further, I am not taking a kid who was a three star recruit and averaged 6 points per game two seasons ago in the lottery. I am just not doing that. If he goes ahead of Achiuma or Bey or Okoro for example, I think that is an injustice. I would still take Toppin and his tight hips over Halliburton. 

Haliburton is a classic example of group think. Nobody has seen him play, yet everybody has the same opinion on him. "He is so great!" But its all just herd mentality. The same thing happened with Jarret Culver. I didnt fall for that, and I ain't falling for this.

 

10. Killian Hayes 

I had never heard of him until the draft. I don’t like that. They say he cant dribble with his right hand? That is really weird. The days of Bob Cousey dribbling with one hand are over. 

11.Patrick Williams 

12.Devin Vassell 

Florida State players are always long and they always can shoot a little bit in college. But than they are never good in the NBA. Seriously, name one. It’s the same story every year. Are we even SURE that either of these guys can actually shoot?

13. Tyrell Terry 

I watched a couple Stanford games and I barely remember Terry. He can shoot from deep? Ok, who cares. He is tiny. He will have to guard somebody on the other end. It sounds like Terry has overhauled his body in the pre-draft workouts, but how am I supposed to know anything about that. That could very easily just be smoke put out there by his agent. I know very little about Terry, but I am pretty sure he is not Steph Curry or Trae Young. Is he even Seth Curry?

14. Kira Lewis

Dude weighs 165 pounds. I repeat, 165 pounds!! And he is being discussed in the lottery. huh?

15. Theo Maledon 

Bleh. 

16. RJ Hampton 

I have seen some highlights, I dont quite get what the hype is with him. Seems super entitled.

17. Tyresse Maxey 

I have watched a lot of Kentucky games and I am not a Maxey guy at all. I guess I can understand if somebody is, but I am not. To me, he is Colin Sexton all over again, but worse. He doesn't really finish at the rim and he doesn't really shoot the three. He isn't really big enough to be a lockdown defender either. Its all smoke and mirrors with him. He plays really hard and he plays with flair but he doesn't actually get anything done. 

TIER 4: PLAYERS I THINK WILL HAVE BETTER CAREERS THAN ALL OF TIER 3

18. Aaron Nesmith - Vanderbilt 

I only saw him briefly in a game vs LSU, he has a slightly odd release and is not very athletic. BUT! he is 6’5 with a 6’10 wingspan and the best shooter in the draft. Lets not overthink this NBA! (I am a tiny bit worried that he is Anthony Morrow all over again.)

19. Jalen Smith - Maryland 

Smith is as clunky as could be, but he will probably be in the league for the next 10 years. He is 6'11, he can shoot and he can protect the rim. That alone will keep him on rosters. Does that mean he will be a meaningful player on a playoff team? Probably not. But he is definitely an NBA player. As in, like you can draft him and he will stick around in the league and actually play minutes for you for a long time. Which is not a guarantee for many of the options in this draft.

20. Cole Anthony - UNC

I actually still like Cole Anthony. I thought UNC was a mess last year and he played injured. I would take a flyer on this former 5 star recruit and son of an NBA player. He is sliding down mock drafts way to far. I would be happy if I came out of this weak draft with Cole Anthony.  

21. Malachi Flynn - San Diego St

I am ok with Malachi Flynn. Look, he is really small, but he was the MVP and defensive player of the year. He competes and knows how to win and can create a shot from time to time.

TIER 5: THE REST...

Nico Mannion - yuck. no way. Honestly what does he do well

Jaden McDaniels - seriously?

Tyler Bey - watched a lot of, no way

Josh Green - Just, so boxy and meh 

Devin Dotson - no way. I never understood the Devon Dotson thing

TIER 6: DEEP SLEEPERS 

Immanuel Quickley

I loved him every time I watched Kentucky. He just produced more than the other two guards, Maxey and Haggins, did. None of those three are very big, but Quickly has longer arms and he just got way more done. Oh, and also he can shoot! I feel like he will be able to carve out a spot in the league. 

Payton Pritchard

He will just find a way. If TJ Mconnell can survive in the NBA, so can Pritchard.

Kililan Tillie

Tillie is a legitimately good player. He can shoot, pass and move ok. If you really squint a bit, he is a less mobile Danillo Gallinari. Unfortunately, like Gallinari, he is always injured. But I would be thrilled if my team ended up with Killian Tillie. 

Yon Madar

He has a long ways to go but if Tony Parker and Leandro Barbosa had a child, it would be Madar. He is the Isralian blur! Madar would probably be the quickest player in the NBA right now at 19. And he has a nice rangy winspan and good touch around the rim too.

DRAFT SUMMARY

The whole thing is pretty weak!!! There are no real sure-fire things. You kind of have to take Wiseman, Ball or Edwards just to see if one of them pans out. Than beyond that, there aren't even really any sure thing “good players.” Probably Avijda, but what if he really cant shoot? 

Thats why I like the high upside role players, Achiuma, Okoro and Saddiq Bey. Each of their floors are still pretty good and they all have at least a small chance of actually being really good.

The rest of the draft is really a total crapshoot if you ask me!