2022 Draft Grades

PAOLO BANCHERO - MAGIC 

GRADE: C

I am giving this pick and A and an F, which averages out to a C, and here is my reasoning for giving the Magic an A....

The Magic are terrible. The Magic should not be drafting for fit. The idea that Jabari Smith "fits" next to any combination of Magic players is ridiculous. The objective for building this roster is not to "complement" Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. It is to find a a freaking superstar! 

Lets put it another way. What is the goal for every team in the NBA? It is to win the championship. How do you win an NBA championship? Have one of the best players in the NBA on your roster. Just look at the teams best suited to win an NBA title. The Warriors have at least three hall of famers. The Bucks have Giannnis, Jrue Holiday AND Kris Middelton, in their prime. The Celtics have Brown AND Tatum, in their prime. The Mavericks have Luka..... on and on, you get the idea.

So what the Magic draft strategy very clearly should be, is to try to find a superstar in every single draft that they are in, until they actually get said superstar. Not complement Franz Wagner. 

And the way I see it, the Magic drafted the guy that theoretically has a greater than 1% chance to become one of the top 5-15 players in the NBA. And I love that the Magic did that. 

A

CHET HOLMGREN - Oklahoma City 

GRADE: A+

Now, please bear with me as I batch the Magic F together with the Thunder A+ in one little gumbo style bit of logic and reasoning. 

Ok... the Magic fucked up by not taking Chet Holmgren. I have firmly changed my mind on Holmgren in the last 24 hours since the draft ended.  

Hear me out. We have already established, that If you are an NBA team, and you suck, the quickest way to unsuck, is to land a superstar. See Grizzlies, Memphis. 

So the question is, how sure are we that Paolo Banchero is more likely to become a superstar than Chet Holmgren? Allow me to make the case for Holmgren....

What was the biggest knock on Kevin Durant when he came out of Texas? He was too "skinny." Went second overall. What was the biggest knock on Steph Curry when he came out of Davidson? He was too " small." Went 7th. What was the biggest knock on Giannis Antekoutempo when he came out from Greece? "He was too skinny." Went 14th. And, of course you can see where I am going with this by now..... what is the biggest knock we have on Chet Holmgren today? "He is too skinny!!!" Hmm.

Now, am I about to argue that Chet Holmgren will have the same NBA level impact as any of those three? No. I am not. I am simply pointing out that the "too skinny" label was used to diminish three of the top players currently in the NBA. And it clearly has not been an issue for any of them, so why do we believe it will be such a monumental issue for Holmgren? 

Just for shizzles and giggles, what if we were to assume that the "too skinny" piece will have zero impact on Chet Holmgren's career whatsoever. Than what would we have? We would have a 7'0 tall dude, who can legitimatly shoot, pass and dribble and is clearly destined to be a top 5 NBA shot blocker as a rookie if not more so further into his career.

Isn't that a player that any NBA team would desperately covet?

I mean, how many 7'0 foot dudes in NBA history have been able to protect the rim at an elite level, push the ball up the floor in transition and also cash open threes. Hakeem, nope. Duncan, nope. Shaq, nope. Kevin Durant, yes. And I am struggling to think about anybody else...

Even the 7'0 draft "flops" of recent memory, never came anywhere close to checking all three of those boxes.

So, we know that Chet offers at the very least, a rare skillset and at the very best, a transcendent skillset. 

Besides of course, the oh so concerning part where he is just to darn skinny. 

But I still haven't heard coherent reasoning for why this is really going to matter. What functionality does "bulk" really provide in the modern NBA, a league where many players have actually been slimming down. (Lebron, K. Love, Kyrie Irving... wait, is this a Cavs thing??)

With teams playing faster and faster every year and possessions getting shorter and shorter, it is actually in a players best interest to weigh less, not more. 

Analytics has shown us that by far the most efficient way to score the basketball is to get down the floor before the opposing defense is set. And their is a two step process for capitalizing on this revelation. First, try to put 5 guys on the floor that can guard every position. This way, you will be able to switch every screen, which will increase your percentage of stops and thus increase your opportunities to go score before the defense is set. Second , try to put 5 guys on the floor that can all shoot pass and dribble. This way, when you sprint down the floor, nobody has to run to a specific spot or position. You can attack from any and all spots. Which is more difficult to defend. 

We also know that by far the least efficient way to score the basketball is through traditional post ups and that rebounding barely correlates to NBA titles. When looking at synergy sports data, we find the LEAGUE AVERAGE for post ups to be 0.2 PPP less than all other scoring categories. When we look at the top five rebounding teams in the NBA this year, we find the Jazz, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Bucks and the Knicks. Only one of whom had a legitimate chance whatsoever to win the NBA title. 

So why are we so worried about Chet Holmgren being too skinny?

In fact, the Thunder are going to have a HUGE competitive advantage, with Holmgren on the floor. Not only will Chet anchor the defense, with elite shot blocking, excellent pick and roll defense and wing defensive capabilities,but  he will also positively affect the offense, at the very least stretching opposing big man out to the perimeter. 

This will be not so unlike having a magic machine that morphs a player into Kristaps Porzingis when he crosses the halfcourt line going one direction, and back into Rudy Gobert when he crosses the halfcourt line back the other direction. 

We have never really seen this before. 

And so yea, I think the Magic fucked this one up. I predict that we will look back and say "wow, Palo is alright and all, but damn! the Magic could have had Holmgren!" 

And yea, to be clear, am I saying that Holmgren is going to be a Curry, Giannis or Durant level of player? No, I am not. Each of those players dominated their respective level below the NBA in a way that Chet has not. 

But I AM making the case that whatever reasonable CEILING that you have set for Chet, there is a high probability that he will achieve it. Whether that is simply a very good player on a good team, a top 3 player on a contending team or perhaps even an all-nba player, I believe in Chet. 

And when Chet turns out to just be an impossibly skinny Miles Turner with a little bit better handle, I can just go back and delete this blogpost. 

A+ / F

JABARI SMITH JR. - ROCKETS 

GRADE: C

He can not dribble. He can not finish at the rim. He does not get to the free throw line. He can not create an isolation basket. He can cash open threes. He has a sweet as could be, one dribble pullup. He is pretty legit on defense. Ladies and gentleman, that is a role player!

Congratulations on finding a great role player with your third overall pick Houston! This will really start to help you when you reach the playoffs five years from now. To the "The Rockets are starting to build something special" crowd. Please keep in mind that the New Orleans Pelicans have CJ McCullum, Brandon Ingram and Zion freakin Williamson. You have Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr and Alperen Sengun. 

The Rockets have a long ways to go, and they didn't get any closer with this draft. 

KEEGAN MURRAY - KINGS - D

"I like Keegan Murray." How many times have you heard draft experts say that? I heard it so many times, that I even started saying the same thing too. But the more I think about it, what the heck are we even saying? 

Like, was every single person besides me tuning into late night Iowa Hawkeye basketball games all season? My bad. 

Some stats for you. As a sophomore, Murray averaged 1 assist a game, 1 steal a game and 2 blocks per game in 31 minutes played. Last season, Iowa had the #4 ranked offense in American and the #80 ranked defense in America. Murray shot, 29% from three his freshman season and 39% from three his sophomore season. And not a stat, but as every draft analyst has made perfectly clear, he doesn't really "create" shots, but he is good at finishing shots. 

Ok.... so my 4th overall pick can hit an open shot, but he cant create one, or pass very well, and he didn't really move the needle defensively for his college team. 

Awesome. 

Reminder that Jalil Okafor, Mario Henojza, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Josh Jackson, Marvin Bagley, Jaret Culver and Patrick Williams all went top 5 in recent years. One of these picks is going to be a whiff.

Eye emoji at you Keegan Murray. 

7/6/22 ADD: Its only been two summer league games and this take/grade is already looking dumb. Murray looks legit, lets see if it can translate to the big show. 

D 

JADEN IVEY - PISTONS 

GRADE: A+ 

I love Jaden Ivey. I seriously think I am taking crazy pills sometimes when I listen to all of these "draft pundits." Like, just listen to yourself talk. You are all describing a player that I would really, really want on an NBA team. 

I think he is going to look like a totally different player on an NBA court with NBA spacing, than he did on a college court playing alongside traditional post players. 

I think he is going to play his balls off, I think he is going to work his tail off and I think he has the perfect mental and physical makeup for the modern NBA. 

I love his fit in Detroit next to Cade Cunningham. And I love that he literally could not stop crying once he realized he wouldn't have to go to Sacramento. 

I am all in on Jaden Ivey on the Pistons. 

A+

BEN MATHURIN -  INDIANA

GRADE: C

My gut tells me Mathurin wont ever totally put it together. My eye balls tell me that my gut is an idiot. My eye balls and gut tell me that Shaedon Sharpe is going to be a major star. 

SHAEDON SHARPE - BLAZERS

GRADE: A+

Don't totally know why, but my basketball spidey sense tells me that Sharpe will probably end up being THE top player from this draft. The highlight film, the little tidbits I have picked up from blogs and podcasts. I just get the sense that Sharpe is going to be big time. 

DYSON DANIELS - PELICANS

GRADE: A+

Now that I know more about Dyson Daniels, I love this fit with the Pelicans. Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels patrolling the wings as Zions wingmen for years to come is going to be awesome. Colby has sold me, and I am very excited about it. 

JEREMY SOCHAN - SPURS

GRADE: A+

I love Jeremey Sochan. I trust the Spurs. I think the Spurs won the draft, which I will get into later. 

JOHNNY DAVIS - WIZARDS

GRADE: C-

I have changed my mind quite a bit on Davis. I still like him generally, I think. But, I just dont see him every moving the needle in the NBA anymore. Maybe its the Wizards track record of being prospect purgatory. 

"Hello? Deni Avijda? How are you doing? How is Rui. Please update us. We havenet heard from you, ever."

The Wizards are zero percent on my radar, and I am thinking Johnny Davis will end up being the same way. 

OUSMANE DIENG - THUNDER

GRADE: D

I lot of the draft experts are raving about Dieng. He fits the high upside, shoot for the stars mantra that I was preaching earlier. But I rewatched the highlight film again, and I just... dont see it. I hope I am wrong!

I am here for the jumbo sized Thunder experience. And a 6'10 playmaker will only my increase my enjoyment of said experience. 

I respect the shot in the dark at some upside, but Ousmane Dieng? really? 

JALEN WILLIAMS - THUNDER

GRADE: D, but also maybe an A

This is an interesting one

I forsee a 10% possibility that three years from now, we are like "holy shitballs this Jalen Williams kid is really freaking good, where did he come from again, Santa Clara? Wow, crazy." 

The tools are all there. 

But I also forsee a 90% possibility that three years from now, we are like, "oh yea, Williams was that kid from Santa Clara, yea remember when people really liked him from Santa Clara?"

I dont know what his work ethic is like, but as of now, his handle is not very tight and his body sucks. If those two things were to turn around, I believe in his instincts on the court, his wingspan and that sweet shooting stroke. 

JALEN DUREN - PISTONS

GRADE: F

My favorite team drafted James Wiseman. I am incapable of having rationally takes about centers from Memphis. 

OCHAI OCBAJI - CAVALIERS 

GRADE: D

Everyone is giving this an A. If he was so good, why did he not get drafted higher? If he was so good, why did he stay all four years at Kansas? If he was so good, why weren't NBA teams fighting over the chance to get the best player on the national title winning team? I dont know, I am just not buying it. 

MARK WILLIAMS - HORNETS

GRADE: B

it. Lamelo needs a lob threat. Mark Williams can do that great while also protecting the rim. He will be a way better fit than Mason Plumlee and as a huge Lamelo fan, I love that. 

AJ GRIFFIN - HAWKS

GRADE: B

I like AJ Grffin and I also like his fit on the Hawks. 

TARI EASON - HOUSTON 

GRADE: C

Sure. Why not. 

DALEN TERRY - BULLS 

GRADE: A

I have now decided that I love Dalen Terry. If you kind of average out all of the things that draft people have been saying about him, it does seem like he is going to be pretty awesome. One of those, wait, everybody is describing a player that every team would really like to have. I predict he will be an outside the lottery guy that we look back years from now and be like, wow. 

JAKE LARAVIA - GRIZZLIES

GRADE: A

Sure. Why question the Grizzlies draft prowess at this point. 

MALAKI BRANHAM- SPURS

GRADE: A+++

I have to confess that I have gone bonkers for Malakai Branham. Early in this college basketball season, he caught my attention with his swagger. Than, I had completely forgotten about his existence until his entrance in this draft reminded me that Ohio State had a guard with swagger and that his name is Malakai Branham. 

So I felt good about him leading up to the draft. 

But now, post draft and post three viewings of his 12 minute highlight film on youtube, I am all in. I do believe that we will look back on this pick and wonder, "how the heck the spurs were so lucky to end up with Branham at pick #20."

I love the fit with the Spurs, who are in desperate need of a primary scorer. I love his frame, which already looks like a great NBA body at age 19. And I LOVE his scoring confidence and instincts. His midrange game already glistens with a Kris Middelton type of polish. His catch and shoot three point stroke is oh so sweet and dont you worry your little self about his ability to finish at the rim. He shows all kinds of versatility at the rim in his highlight film, from power to finnese and everything in between. 

The best thing of all? This kid is only 19! You CAN NOT produce the type of highlight reel that he did as a freshman in the Big Ten unless you are some next level kind of gym rat. I firmly believe in his ability to approve, and I firmly believe in Malakai Branam!

Seriously though, just watch this video, and tell me I am wrong..

youtube.com/watch?v=wyIxoIuQOYk&t=366s

7/6/22 ADD: A+ to the Grizzlies for picking up my guy Kenneth Lofton Jr. He is going to make it!!

2022 NBA DRAFT

My depth of knowledge is a little thin this year. I watched a good bit of the blue blood NCAA teams; Duke, Gonzaga, Arizona. I kept a fairly keen eye on Purdue and Auburn. I also saw a decent amount of SEC and WCC basketball. I know zero about the international or g-league prospects. I found very little time to go back and watch games / highlights, which is something that I do typically do in the spring, due to a certain teams NBA title run...

But!! Despite a down year, the tradition must be maintained. So from this point forward, I will pretend that I know exactly what I am talking about. 

2022 NBA DRAFT RANKINGS

TIER 1: STARS 

Guys that will definitely be stars...

1. Paulo Banchero - Duke 

Banchero is my #1 guy and I am confused as to why this is not consensus. Banchero can score in a variety of ways, is a legitimate passer, has a good handle and a huge frame. All while appearing to be a great teammate at Duke. 

Banchero is simply the best scorer / playmaker of the consensus top 4. 

Yes, the defense wasn't great at Duke, but Paulo is 6'10 and 250 pounds. As he improves, I believe he will learn how to utilize that size to at least get him to average. And when you consider what he can do in that frame on the offensive end, well, that is why he is my #1 guy. 

2. Jaden Ivey - Purdue 

I spent the entire college basketball season assuming that Jaden Ivey would be the #1 pick. I watched Purdue many times, and always came away thinking, "wow, it is crazy that Purdue has the small forward version of Ja Morant on their team." 

Although I have Banchero ranked higher now, I still think very highly of Ivey and my rationale is pretty simple.... Elite First Step + Way More Space in NBA + Son of Coach = Potential Superstar. 

There was simply nobody in college basketball that could stay in front of Jaden Ivey this season. To me, his first step is in that Westbrook, Morant, DRose type of tier. Purdue played a throwback style of basketball this season built around traditional big men. This was good for the team, but not for Ivey, who looks perfectly designed to be a spread the floor NBA slasher. And finally, Ivey's mom is the HC at Notre Dame. This, with how hard Ivey plays every game that I watched, and how fit his body is, leaves me feeling confident that he has the work ethic necessary to work his way to NBA stardom. 

*I am not worried about his three point shot. He only needs to shoot average, which he already does, and his mechanics only require minor tweaks 

TIER 2 - COULD BE STARS 

These are the guys that could become stars, but come with some risk.. 

3. Chet Holmgren - Gonzaga 

I feel the same way about Chet as I did about Jonathon Kuminga last year. You just have to take the lottery ticket. Could he be an absolute bust? Yes. But, could he also be three point shooting Rudy Gobert? Yes. 

Look, I could find a lot of things to be critical about. I don't totally buy the "high IQ" label. He cant really do anything on offense as of right now. He weights very nearly 1/2 as much as NBA players such as Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. 

But that is not what you are drafting. You are drafting the 7'5 wingspan, the elite shot blocking and the three point shooting. You are looking to land Rudy Gobert with a jump shot. You are banking on Kristaps Porzingis with excellent defense. 

And you simply don't have very many chances to find somebody with that kind of potential. Whether it be the draft, trade or free agency. Draft the lottery ticket and hope for the best!

* the Gonzaga games I watched, he didn't totally know where to go or what to do. His instincts were a little clunky to me. The team was well coached, which I believe to be the source of the "high IQ" label. I wouldn't say he, himself, looked high IQ. I would say he was in a high IQ system ,around very high IQ players. (Specifically Drew Timme.) None of this is a terrible thing. He was a true freshman playing in some big time games, but it is worth noting. 

**He was awesome at Gonzaga as a "drop" pick and roll defender. And that should be a highly valuable NBA skill from Day 1. He also truly does have "elite" shot blocking instincts

4. Jabari Smith - Auburn 

I would not be disappointed to have Jabari Smith on my team. I do not think Jabari Smith is the #1 prospect in this draft. I believe both of these statements can be true. 

Jabari 100% looks like a player that could be on the court in the NBA finals. He is big, athletic and can shoot. He looks like a modern day Robert Horry. Jabari does not look to me like the guy you want carrying your offense in the NBA finals. He looks like a modern day Robert Horry. 

Damn near every close Auburn game, Smith tried to win the game with his jump shot (and playing hard on defense). Never by getting to the rim. Never by passing the ball. And to me, that is a knock against the idea of Smith becoming a #1 or #2 NBA option. 

Could he improve? Of course. He is 19 years old. But to me, if I am at the bottom of the league, I want to swing for the true #1 or #2, not a high end role player.

* it looks like he will be an extremely high end role player

** he is 19 years old, 6'10, jacked, all kinds of athleticism and a wet jumper and I am over here labeling him a role player smh

5. Shaeden Sharpe - Kentucky 

Look, he can shoot the lights out and jump out of the gym. I don't know anything more about him than you do. The two minutes of highlights that I have seen were enough to make me think he could be an NBA star. They were THAT impressive. It is very difficult to land a star in the NBA, and Sharpe is probably the last chance to find one in this draft. And that is all I know. 

TIER 3 - ROLE PLAYERS 

6. Keegan Murray - Iowa

I like Murray. I feel like these guys always fly under the radar. He does not pop off of the screen athletically. He dosen't really wow you with passing or defense or even iso scoring. He just kinda gets buckets while also doing everything else halfway decent. Very Antwain Jamison like and I dig it. 

Here is how each Iowa game that I watched went for me. "Wow, I am excited to watch this Keegan Murray kid people are talking about." "Wow, how many of Fran McCaffery's kids are on this team." "Wow, this team is really bad on defense." "Wow, I didn't really notice Murray too much." "Holy crap he had 27 points??"

He is one of those guys.

7. Jeremy Sochan - Baylor 

He caught my eye early in the college basketball season. I could not believe he was a true freshman. Very grown up looking teenager. Looks to me like a clear NBA playoff rotation player to me. Can come in, guard a bunch of people, rebound, make simple plays and fit into a team concept. Really the only thing he doesn't do well is shoot, and I am just not to worried about that. Most guys without egregious mechanical issues figure it out in the NBA now. I have a similar excited feeling about him as I did Herb Jones last year. The dude just knows how to play ball. I like guys on my team that just know how to play ball. 

*it is so easy to fall into the "this guy can shoot and dunk and looks athletic" trap. At the end of the day, its a team game, and Sochan is one of those guys that just makes a team better.

8. Aj Griffin - Duke 

Griffin snuck way under my radar this year at Duke. About 3 weeks ago, I watched a 12 minute highlight film of Griffin at Duke. I said to myself, "hold up, how is this not like a consensus top 5 player in this draft." 6'6 wing with bulk, just drilling shot after shot after shot. So I dialed up a Duke game from this season and quickly skimmed through it and... "oh, there it is." Dude is a mess on defense. To put it lightly, his defense is bad. But! I am telling you, that highlight video man! That highlight video!!! 

8. Johnny Davis - Wisconsin 

I like Davis. His youtube highlights are legit. When you string all of his top plays together, he looks pretty explosive, shifty and a good looking jump shot. I think my favorite thing about him is how he competes on defense. He really gets after it, and really knows what he is doing. I was surprised to see that he only shot 30% from three last year. I think he can get that number way up with consistent work. It was concerning to see so many midrange jumpers on his highlight film. He wont get to take many of those as an NBA role player. So there are things to work on, but I like the idea of his long term development. I know it sounds crazy on paper, but I think I would prefer him over Mathurin. I see teeny-tiny-shades of Brandon Roy when I watch Davis highlights. I  currently prefer him as my two guard over Mathurin, which could be laughable long term.

** Johnny Davis is most certainly not Brandon Roy. And these types of mental comparisons which have nothing to do with anything are usually what get me in trouble. Johnny Davis is Johnny Davis. He is not Brandon Roy. The only reason those two names are next to each other is because my brain just up and decided to do so. Johnny Davis is not Brandon Roy.

10. Benedict Mathurin - Arizona

I dont know what it is about Mathurin. I just have a hard time getting on board. He looks the part; great body, athleticism, good jump shot. But, I just don't feel like he is elite enough at any one thing to really separate himself. He isn't lockdown. He isn't a sniper. He isn't consistently getting to the free throw line. 

The guys I have ahead of him, I know what I am going to get; Murray = Scoring, Sochan = Defense, Griffin = Elite Shooting and Davis = Defense. ....with Mathurin, I just don't totally know what I am getting. How exactly is he going to help my team win games??

Sometimes guys carve out 10 year careers, being steady eddy's but never really having a big NBA moment or impact. That kind of feels like Mathurin to me.

*With all of this said, Maturin is a 6'7 high flyer who can knock down jump shots. So He could easily make my analysis look ridiculous 

**but I did watch 4-5 Arizona games this year and I never really came away feeling like, "holy cow!! Ben Mathurin!! 

*** but there was that game in the NCAA tournament where he was awesome and single handedly saved Arizona's season 

**I really with I could watch all the film on all of these guys so that I would actually know. The film rarely lies!!I BUT unless I want to spend a month in a film dungeon, I just gotta go with my gut

***I really want to spend a month in a film dungeon 

TIER 4 - THROWING DARTS

Every player in this draft is talented. That is why they are considered to be "60 of the top players in the world not yet in the NBA." I would imagine that if I were to watch 3-5 full game films of each prospect, I would end up liking (or clearly not liking) most of them. Long way to say, keep in mind that I am highly biased towards the players that I watched a lot of, and generally disregard the others...

11. Dyson Daniels - G league 

I am generally disregarding Daniels. I honestly know very close to zero about him. I watched a highlight film, and I wasn't a huge fan of the way he moved. What does that even mean?? I don't really know. He just didn't move like an NBA player to me. 

But, what do I know. He looked crafty in the highlight film. People seem to think he is good and you don't just end up on the G-League ignite at age 18 if you totally suck

One thing that I do know about him is that his brother plays for the Regis Rangers who are in the RMAC. When the brother committed to Regis two years ago I looked up an Australian highlight film and somehow got Dyson Daniels confused with his brother Ky Daniels. Lets just say that Dyson is a lot better than Ky. 

12. Jalen Williams - Santa Clara 

This is the Desmond Bane pick all over again!. He shoots the heck out of it and can do other stuff too. Lets not over think this. He is 6'6, can shoot the heck out of it and can do other stuff too. "No! We do not need Jalen Duren." "I do not care how athletic Jalen Duren is!" Lets just take the guy that is 6'6, can shoot the heck out of it and can do other stuff to. "Yes, I know Jalen Duren looks like the second coming of Dwight Howard." Just take the guy who can stroke threes and also do other stuff too!!

13. Jalen Duren - Memphis

He is the second coming of Dwight Howard. 

14. Mark Williams - Duke 

My brain is grouping the centers together because that is how brains work! We are not inherently logical people. Ryen Russilo said he was a 5 star out of high school. He also attended Duke. These are all of the things that I know about him. I watched 3-5 Duke games this year and I barely even remember him. Top 14 prospect baby!!

15. Malaki Branham - Ohio State

I watched two Ohio State games early on in the season and came away thinking, "wow, they have a really good guard." For some reason it did not register to me that he was an NBA prospect, so when his name popped up this draft season, I was like "oh snap! that guy from ohio state is a baller!" I do not remember the exact details of his game, but I do remember that he had a lot of swagger and he could score. And I like those kind of guys. 

16. Wendell Moore - Duke 

This is where my rankings start getting real wonky. But, I definitely like Wendell Moore. I could see him getting drafted much higher than everybody thinks. He has a really impressive frame and nice athleticism and competes. I could see him working hard and becoming a really nice role player for somebody. Needs to improve his skill level for sure. But you cant teach that body and competitive drive. Maybe a little Lu Dort'ish???

17. Patrick Baldwin - Wisconsin Milwaukee

I do not know what the story on Patrick Baldwin is, and I have never seen him play, but he was a 5 star prospect and consensus top 10 pick at some point

18. Ochai Agbai - Kansas

He could be aight'. If his jump shot stays consistent he could stick around the NBA I would think. I am already bored talking about Ochai Agbai. 

19. Tari Eason- LSU

LSU!! LSU!! He is tough and loves shooting those three balls. Don't underestimate me when I say he LOVES shooting that three ball. He plays his balls off. I am kinda talking myself into him! There could be worse wings to pick up in this draft. Maybe a fun project pick for a playoff team. 

20. Christian Koloko - Arizona

I really like Christian Koloko for the Warriors. They need a backup center and I think Okoro is an excellent low cost option at the end of the first round. He plays very hard and can do all of the things that James Wiseman can not do. 

I really like the way that he moves. He has really good timing contesting shots around the rim and competes for rebounds. I felt like his hands were pretty good. Maybe not elite, but good. I thought he was a pretty good interior finisher at UofA. I remember him having some nice finishes in the big matchups against UCLA. 

Probably most intriguing of all, Arizona switched him out onto guards at times and he was able to hold his own. Everyone always talks about someone filling the "Javale McGee" role for the Warriors. But I would prefer someone to fill the Kevon Looney role. I could see Koloko playing a similar way to Looney in the Warriors system with better shot blocking. If the Warriors do not draft Koloko, I will get over it in about 15 seconds. 

21. Dalen Terry - Arizona

Another Arizona guy, they were really fun to watch this year. I really wish I had registered Terry as an NBA guy in this years draft. I didn't totally register him like I did his two teamates. This is a guy I would really like to find the time to go re-watch. As I have mentioned, I watched a lot of Arizona games this season. He was definitely a factor and I liked him, I just didn't think he would declare for the draft this early and so I didn't mentally register as many of his plays as I would have liked. I do remember some wow moments. 

22. EJ Lidell - Ohio State

I liked EJ Liddell at Ohio State. I highly doubt my lack of analysis on him will burn me. 

** How awesome would it be if he becomes awesome and burns my lack of analysis

SIDE BAR #1 SLEEPERS

Kenneth Lofton Jr. - Louisiana Tech 

I love, love, love Kenneth Lofton Jr. from Louisiana Tech. Every year I find someone to irrationally fall in love with. And this year Lofton Jr is the one! (The Deni Avijda club) I am shocked to find that he entered the draft. Last I checked he was in the transfer portal looking to go to a blue blood. 

The backstory on Lofton is that he was on the U19 USA team coached by Jeff Van Gundy (last summer I think.) I watch all of those games because Van Gundy is very good with the X and O's and I always learn a lot. 

Anyways, Lofton Jr. was awesome! the whole tournament. He is like 6'6 280 pounds or something, but somehow just knows where to go and what to do. His biggest strength is on the low block, so you would think he wouldn't be a fit for the modern game, but as the FIBA tournament showed, he surprisingly just knows how to get things done. 

Than, when he damn near beat my LSU tigers by himself early this season, I was sold for life! If I am an NBA team, I draft him and than I do two things. First, I get some of the weight off of him. Saying he is "big" is putting it nicely. Second, I just put him on the court and see what happens. His game isn't like Draymond Green's, but similar to Draymond Green, I think you just need to put him on the court and see what he becomes. He is not going to fit into a "box" (pun intended) but I trust him to carve out a niche.

**Joel will understand what I mean when I say he is the Davey Miramontez of NBA prospects

JD Davison - Alabama 

I am not shying away from Davison's "meh" freshman season in Tuscaloosa. I believe in this 6'3 guard with a sweet handle, powerful first step, crazy bounce, smooth looking jump shot and awesome hair. Look, he is young. And young players do crazy things and are inconsistent. Davison is guilty of both. But long term, I like his talent and would be totally willing to invest in his development. I think he will be an awesome NBA combo guard.

SIDE BAR #2 LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR

Rankings 1-6:

I assessed the Top 6 fairly well. Mobley looks great, and his NBA value is probably higher right now than Cunningham or Green. However, I still think it was the right decision to draft the high end play-makers. (if that makes any sense) +3 

Everyone was saying that Suggs was going to Toronto. I was on the money saying that Barnes should and would go to Toronto. I was correct in NOT buying into the concerns about Barnes and I was also correct about HAVING concerns about Jalen Suggs. +1 

Kuminga is still an enigma. Even though Barnes was good for Toronto, Kuminga clearly has more talent. Perhaps over time it could look like Toronto should have taken Kuminga. +0 

In my notes I said that Kuminga would have a tough time on a team like the Warriors. That is looking like a strange thing to have said. I wonder how much longer Kuminga will be "totally cool" with being just a role player. -1 

Rankings 7-12:

This section was rough for me. Franz Wagner must have worked on his game every waking second from his last game with Michigan to his first game with Orlando. He looks awesome! And pretty clearly a top long term talent from this draft. I 100% whiffed on Franz Wagner. -5 

I went back and forth on Josh Giddey a few different times, but it is now very clear that I should have had him above James Bouknight. -1 

I nailed the Chris Duarte assessment. +1 

My love for Alpern Sengun is just straight bizarre and confusing. I caught a brief Lakers Rockets game this season and Sengun had no idea what he was doing. I ranked him as my 7th favorite prospect. We will see... -1 

Rankings 14-22:

Every year there are guys that you just feel obligated to put in your top 16, and than you never hear from them again. Corey Krispert, who I ranked at 14, appears to be headed that direction. Group think is a silly thing! -1 

Sticking with Zaire Williams at 15 when most everybody else had him sliding was the right decision. The Stanford season had nothing to do with what he will become in the NBA. He looks great. While I had him high, I should have ranked him much higher and the Warriors probably should have drafted him instead of Moody. +1 -1 +1

Both the San Antonio Spurs and I are looking good for believing in Josh Primo. +1

Last years rankings do not accurately express how dominant my herb jones assessment was. At the time, everyone had him as a late second rounder. I had him at #21!!! I would have put him even higher had I not been befallen by stupid group think!! He is clearly a top 10 player from this draft and definitely who the Warriors should have taken over Moody. +10 

Quote from last year comparing Zaire Williams to Herb Jones: "Herb Jones cant shoot a lick, so there is that. But am I really that crazy if I would rather have the other 6'8 dude, you know the one with a brain and a heart, who is going to defend, rebound, make plays and show up in big moments?"

PS - I had both Williams and Herb Jones ranked over Moody. Looking at you warriors...

It is still early, but I think I might have been right on the Davion Mitchell thing. Still rooting for you buddy! +1 

Miles McBride is terrible. I totally whiffed on that one. -1

Getting obsessed with Tre Man and Jason Preston was a silly waste of time. Things could still change! -1

Prospects 23 -31:

Still in on Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Still backing my pre-draft assessment. +1 

The other names in this teir haven't made any noise yet...

Way way off on Ayo Dosumunu who I had at #31. He looks awesome! -2 

+3 broke just about even after one year baby yea!!

And back to this years draft...

TIER 4: WHERE MY KNOWLEDGE FALLS OFF OF A CLIFF

- It seems like you should definitely want Tyty Washington because he went to Kentucky. When in doubt, just draft a Kentucky guy!! Like, seriously though

- Osmunie Dieng. I watched a highlight film and it looked very meh

- Kennedy Chandler - I don't trust very many people from tennessee in general and I definitely do not trust NBA prospects from the University of Tennessee. Has there been a good one since Allen Houston?

- Marjon Beauchamp somehow played at a junior college in Oregon. I always check the stats of juco players in oregon and when I saw his numbers I almost reached out to see if he would interested in CMU and than I put on the game film for like 30 seconds and was like oh shit he wont be coming here... 

- I really like Walker Kessler and think that he will stick as an NBA player. I liked the way he defended ballscreens in college. And Holy cow does he protect the rim! And I liked the mechanics on his jumpshot, although it hardly ever went in. Fan of Kessler as an NBA backup 5. 

- There are going to be some second round success stories in this draft. I wish I had more time to find all of the gems

- I had never heard of Blake Wesley, until today

- A little wild that Nikola Jokic is in this draft again

Ok, I think I am officially out of content. That is it for my 2022 analysis! 

Offensive Keys

Really it all comes down to three things...

1. Shoot a high percentage from the field. Achieve this by...

2. Improving decision making (SSG's)

3. Positioning 

The key coaching point with your team are...

1. Draw 2 to the ball and find the open man 
2. Open man find the open space 
3. Dont drive the ball twice  

Jump Shooting

Door #1 - Centerline Tune Up 

Door #2 - Rebuild (takes 4-8 weeks of reps)

TRUTHS

1. The finger that touches the ball last will dictate where the ball is going to go 

2. The ball needs to go up and out - positive energy will help, and negative energy will hurt 

3. The ideal shot has an arc of 45 degrees and hits the back middle of the rim 

HELPFUL IDEAS

1. The upper body provides 80% of the power, and is primarily from the wrist snap 

2. Most players catapult the ball - and when you do this, the ball doesn't fit in front of the face. So what they do is put the ball above, below or to the side of their head. - teach them to use their legs and than get the ball in front of their face

3. Thumb to eye puts the ball in front of the face with an optimal V angle 

TEACHING

1. Knowledge - of what the body is doing and what it should be doing 

2. Reps - lots of them 

3. Brain - keep the brain stimulated throughout 

Teaching Systems

 GENERAL

1. Goal 
2. Problem / Solution 
3. What to do 
4. What not to do
5. Scoring / Rotations 

A CONCEPT

1. The goal 
2. Each action 
3. Each action relative to opponent 
4. Each action variably 

DRILL 

1. Setup in formation 
2. The goal 
3. What to do
4. What not to do 
5. Scoring and Rotation 

POSSESSION GAMES 

1. Goal 
2. Constraints 
3. Officiate 
4. Summarize Results 

MIXER DRILLS

   PROGRESSION #1 (Threes)

- Coach passes to any of the four players 

- Go and Catch 

- Lift behind the ball 

- One dribble, one pass 

- Passer rebounds 

PROGRESSION #2 (Replacing)

- Player 1 passes to any of 3 teammates

- Replace the wing spots opposite of the drive 

- Replace to the corner when throwing it to the top 

PROGRESSION #3 (One Mores)

- Player 2 passes to either 4 or 3

- Immediate one more pass and than drive 

- 1 and 2 have to get aligned on the weakside 

PROGRESSION #4 (Deep Corners)

- Player 1 passes to either of the deep corners 

- Replace their drive 

- Fill opposite on a one more 

- 4 is looking to fill on the strong side 

WHEN GOING TO 5v0..

- the goal is to do everything with a 2nd penetration and one more 

PHOENIX SCREENING DRILL

 Here is how the "phoenix" drill goes...

PROGRESSION #1 

- 2 Offensive Players (PR Ballhandler + PR Screener) 

- 1 Defensive Player (PR Ballhandler Defender) 

- They are all balanced on one foot 

- They all land on two feet at the same time 

- The defender can land square to the ballhandler, or square to the screener 

- If the defender lands square to the ballhandler, the screener wants to hold his screen and reverse pivot 

- if the defender lands square to the screener, the screener wants to forward pivot and get out of there 

PROGRESSION #2 

- same idea..

- just everybody takes a few steps back

- so now the ballhandler dribbles, the screener runs, and the defender is stationary 

PROGRESSION #3

- the defense tries to slide way under, or get over 

- most of the time the defender has to open up to slide under, so the screener can slip in front of his face 

- if the defender is able to "slide" way under, than you twist and rescreen 

DIGITAL PASSING INDEX

 

0 SERIES
0.1	Pregame warm up; tip drill, bob night, star drill, layup lines, free shoot / stretch / ballhandling
0.2	National Anthem and Starting Lineup
0.3	Opening Tip / jump balls
0.4	Bench Ettitquite; wolf call, shot clock call, sub in, sub out. 3 point made, dunk made, buzzer beater
0.5	Full / Media Timeout
0.6	30 second timeout
0.7	After we foul, play call
0.8	After they foul, play call
0.9	______
10 SERIES	TRANSITION
10.15	Rim Runner
10.12	Pass ahead strong side
10.13	Skip ahead weak side
10.14	Pitchback
10.143	2 Side Reversal
10.125	Wing to big
10.135	Wing to big
20 SERIES	ADVANTAGE MIXER
20. 5High	Lob to dunker spot
20.5Low	Bounce pass to dunker spot
20.5Nash	Nash around to dunker spot
20.Red2	Red box strong side pass
20.Red3	Red box weak side pass
20.Red4	Red box pitchback
20.Blue2	Blue box strong side kickout to kickup
20.Blue3	Blue Box weakside kickout to kickup
20.Blue4	Blue box trail kickout to wrap behind
One more
Crescendo
Full Crescendo
25 SERIES	POST UPS
25.25	Entering post right side
25.35	Entering post left side
25.25flash	Flash nail high low
25.35flash	Flash nail high low
25.52	Skip Opposite Double team
25.51	Cutter double team
25.54	Lane Line double team
25.53	Strong side corner double team
30 SERIES	OFF BALL
32 get	guard gets
32 curl	guards curls
32 sit	guard sits behind
32 gut	guard gut cut
32 eyes	guard backdoors
34 slip	screener slips
35 pop	screener pops
40 SERIES	NO ADVANTAGE MIXER
Lane Pass	Lane to lane pass
Wing Pass	Lane to wing pass
Eyes	Backdoor cut
GPS	Gap Kick Swing
Skip	Skip Pass
50 SERIES	ON BALLS
50.15	passes to roll man
50.52,53,54	roll man kickouts
50.14 dive	backcut
50.14go	catch and go
50.13	shake three
50.13go	shake go and catch
50.145pass	boomerang
50.345pass	reverse boomerang
60 SERIES	2 MAN GAMES
41	4 screen for 1
42	4 screen for 2
43	4 screen for 3
44	4 leads the way
45	4 swings down to 5
Circles	Invert the positions
70 SERIES	3 MAN GAMES
Chest	Stagger
Arm	Shuffle
Cross	Cross Down
Strong	Flex
80 SERIES	1 MAN GAMES (iso)
12345	Post Mismatch (pre-switch)
12345	Post Mismatch (post-switch)
12345	Perimeter Mismatch (pre-switch)
12345	Perimiter Mismatch (post-switch)
90 SERIES	QUICK HITTERS
open layup	backdoor, backpick, slipping screens
open three	off a single, off a double, off a triple. differnet movment than normal
100 SERIES	LOOSEN UP BALLSCREENS
Horns	Zipper cut to horns, up, down and twist
New Zealand	Same horns entry into new zealand two sides, before a ballscreen
Chin	Wing entry to chin, double, jersey
Gael	40 entry to a high tag single ballscreen
Elbow	circles dive entry, enter to elbow for over the top split screen to open corner ballscreen with movment weakside
Step Up	Weave to 4, blur and follow with 2, right back to the 1 for a step up pop and backcut
Fist	A flex action for the pg to go to the post or recieve a middle ballscreen
Knights	that crazy dho flex play thing
110 SERIES	PRACTICE OFFENSES
Drive Kick
Post Ups
Mover Blocker
Continuity