PAOLO BANCHERO - MAGIC
GRADE: C
I am giving this pick and A and an F, which averages out to a C, and here is my reasoning for giving the Magic an A....
The Magic are terrible. The Magic should not be drafting for fit. The idea that Jabari Smith "fits" next to any combination of Magic players is ridiculous. The objective for building this roster is not to "complement" Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. It is to find a a freaking superstar!
Lets put it another way. What is the goal for every team in the NBA? It is to win the championship. How do you win an NBA championship? Have one of the best players in the NBA on your roster. Just look at the teams best suited to win an NBA title. The Warriors have at least three hall of famers. The Bucks have Giannnis, Jrue Holiday AND Kris Middelton, in their prime. The Celtics have Brown AND Tatum, in their prime. The Mavericks have Luka..... on and on, you get the idea.
So what the Magic draft strategy very clearly should be, is to try to find a superstar in every single draft that they are in, until they actually get said superstar. Not complement Franz Wagner.
And the way I see it, the Magic drafted the guy that theoretically has a greater than 1% chance to become one of the top 5-15 players in the NBA. And I love that the Magic did that.
A
CHET HOLMGREN - Oklahoma City
GRADE: A+
Now, please bear with me as I batch the Magic F together with the Thunder A+ in one little gumbo style bit of logic and reasoning.
Ok... the Magic fucked up by not taking Chet Holmgren. I have firmly changed my mind on Holmgren in the last 24 hours since the draft ended.
Hear me out. We have already established, that If you are an NBA team, and you suck, the quickest way to unsuck, is to land a superstar. See Grizzlies, Memphis.
So the question is, how sure are we that Paolo Banchero is more likely to become a superstar than Chet Holmgren? Allow me to make the case for Holmgren....
What was the biggest knock on Kevin Durant when he came out of Texas? He was too "skinny." Went second overall. What was the biggest knock on Steph Curry when he came out of Davidson? He was too " small." Went 7th. What was the biggest knock on Giannis Antekoutempo when he came out from Greece? "He was too skinny." Went 14th. And, of course you can see where I am going with this by now..... what is the biggest knock we have on Chet Holmgren today? "He is too skinny!!!" Hmm.
Now, am I about to argue that Chet Holmgren will have the same NBA level impact as any of those three? No. I am not. I am simply pointing out that the "too skinny" label was used to diminish three of the top players currently in the NBA. And it clearly has not been an issue for any of them, so why do we believe it will be such a monumental issue for Holmgren?
Just for shizzles and giggles, what if we were to assume that the "too skinny" piece will have zero impact on Chet Holmgren's career whatsoever. Than what would we have? We would have a 7'0 tall dude, who can legitimatly shoot, pass and dribble and is clearly destined to be a top 5 NBA shot blocker as a rookie if not more so further into his career.
Isn't that a player that any NBA team would desperately covet?
I mean, how many 7'0 foot dudes in NBA history have been able to protect the rim at an elite level, push the ball up the floor in transition and also cash open threes. Hakeem, nope. Duncan, nope. Shaq, nope. Kevin Durant, yes. And I am struggling to think about anybody else...
Even the 7'0 draft "flops" of recent memory, never came anywhere close to checking all three of those boxes.
So, we know that Chet offers at the very least, a rare skillset and at the very best, a transcendent skillset.
Besides of course, the oh so concerning part where he is just to darn skinny.
But I still haven't heard coherent reasoning for why this is really going to matter. What functionality does "bulk" really provide in the modern NBA, a league where many players have actually been slimming down. (Lebron, K. Love, Kyrie Irving... wait, is this a Cavs thing??)
With teams playing faster and faster every year and possessions getting shorter and shorter, it is actually in a players best interest to weigh less, not more.
Analytics has shown us that by far the most efficient way to score the basketball is to get down the floor before the opposing defense is set. And their is a two step process for capitalizing on this revelation. First, try to put 5 guys on the floor that can guard every position. This way, you will be able to switch every screen, which will increase your percentage of stops and thus increase your opportunities to go score before the defense is set. Second , try to put 5 guys on the floor that can all shoot pass and dribble. This way, when you sprint down the floor, nobody has to run to a specific spot or position. You can attack from any and all spots. Which is more difficult to defend.
We also know that by far the least efficient way to score the basketball is through traditional post ups and that rebounding barely correlates to NBA titles. When looking at synergy sports data, we find the LEAGUE AVERAGE for post ups to be 0.2 PPP less than all other scoring categories. When we look at the top five rebounding teams in the NBA this year, we find the Jazz, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Bucks and the Knicks. Only one of whom had a legitimate chance whatsoever to win the NBA title.
So why are we so worried about Chet Holmgren being too skinny?
In fact, the Thunder are going to have a HUGE competitive advantage, with Holmgren on the floor. Not only will Chet anchor the defense, with elite shot blocking, excellent pick and roll defense and wing defensive capabilities,but he will also positively affect the offense, at the very least stretching opposing big man out to the perimeter.
This will be not so unlike having a magic machine that morphs a player into Kristaps Porzingis when he crosses the halfcourt line going one direction, and back into Rudy Gobert when he crosses the halfcourt line back the other direction.
We have never really seen this before.
And so yea, I think the Magic fucked this one up. I predict that we will look back and say "wow, Palo is alright and all, but damn! the Magic could have had Holmgren!"
And yea, to be clear, am I saying that Holmgren is going to be a Curry, Giannis or Durant level of player? No, I am not. Each of those players dominated their respective level below the NBA in a way that Chet has not.
But I AM making the case that whatever reasonable CEILING that you have set for Chet, there is a high probability that he will achieve it. Whether that is simply a very good player on a good team, a top 3 player on a contending team or perhaps even an all-nba player, I believe in Chet.
And when Chet turns out to just be an impossibly skinny Miles Turner with a little bit better handle, I can just go back and delete this blogpost.
A+ / F
JABARI SMITH JR. - ROCKETS
GRADE: C
He can not dribble. He can not finish at the rim. He does not get to the free throw line. He can not create an isolation basket. He can cash open threes. He has a sweet as could be, one dribble pullup. He is pretty legit on defense. Ladies and gentleman, that is a role player!
Congratulations on finding a great role player with your third overall pick Houston! This will really start to help you when you reach the playoffs five years from now. To the "The Rockets are starting to build something special" crowd. Please keep in mind that the New Orleans Pelicans have CJ McCullum, Brandon Ingram and Zion freakin Williamson. You have Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr and Alperen Sengun.
The Rockets have a long ways to go, and they didn't get any closer with this draft.
KEEGAN MURRAY - KINGS - D
"I like Keegan Murray." How many times have you heard draft experts say that? I heard it so many times, that I even started saying the same thing too. But the more I think about it, what the heck are we even saying?
Like, was every single person besides me tuning into late night Iowa Hawkeye basketball games all season? My bad.
Some stats for you. As a sophomore, Murray averaged 1 assist a game, 1 steal a game and 2 blocks per game in 31 minutes played. Last season, Iowa had the #4 ranked offense in American and the #80 ranked defense in America. Murray shot, 29% from three his freshman season and 39% from three his sophomore season. And not a stat, but as every draft analyst has made perfectly clear, he doesn't really "create" shots, but he is good at finishing shots.
Ok.... so my 4th overall pick can hit an open shot, but he cant create one, or pass very well, and he didn't really move the needle defensively for his college team.
Awesome.
Reminder that Jalil Okafor, Mario Henojza, Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Josh Jackson, Marvin Bagley, Jaret Culver and Patrick Williams all went top 5 in recent years. One of these picks is going to be a whiff.
Eye emoji at you Keegan Murray.
7/6/22 ADD: Its only been two summer league games and this take/grade is already looking dumb. Murray looks legit, lets see if it can translate to the big show.
D
JADEN IVEY - PISTONS
GRADE: A+
I love Jaden Ivey. I seriously think I am taking crazy pills sometimes when I listen to all of these "draft pundits." Like, just listen to yourself talk. You are all describing a player that I would really, really want on an NBA team.
I think he is going to look like a totally different player on an NBA court with NBA spacing, than he did on a college court playing alongside traditional post players.
I think he is going to play his balls off, I think he is going to work his tail off and I think he has the perfect mental and physical makeup for the modern NBA.
I love his fit in Detroit next to Cade Cunningham. And I love that he literally could not stop crying once he realized he wouldn't have to go to Sacramento.
I am all in on Jaden Ivey on the Pistons.
A+
BEN MATHURIN - INDIANA
GRADE: C
My gut tells me Mathurin wont ever totally put it together. My eye balls tell me that my gut is an idiot. My eye balls and gut tell me that Shaedon Sharpe is going to be a major star.
SHAEDON SHARPE - BLAZERS
GRADE: A+
Don't totally know why, but my basketball spidey sense tells me that Sharpe will probably end up being THE top player from this draft. The highlight film, the little tidbits I have picked up from blogs and podcasts. I just get the sense that Sharpe is going to be big time.
DYSON DANIELS - PELICANS
GRADE: A+
Now that I know more about Dyson Daniels, I love this fit with the Pelicans. Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels patrolling the wings as Zions wingmen for years to come is going to be awesome. Colby has sold me, and I am very excited about it.
JEREMY SOCHAN - SPURS
GRADE: A+
I love Jeremey Sochan. I trust the Spurs. I think the Spurs won the draft, which I will get into later.
JOHNNY DAVIS - WIZARDS
GRADE: C-
I have changed my mind quite a bit on Davis. I still like him generally, I think. But, I just dont see him every moving the needle in the NBA anymore. Maybe its the Wizards track record of being prospect purgatory.
"Hello? Deni Avijda? How are you doing? How is Rui. Please update us. We havenet heard from you, ever."
The Wizards are zero percent on my radar, and I am thinking Johnny Davis will end up being the same way.
OUSMANE DIENG - THUNDER
GRADE: D
I lot of the draft experts are raving about Dieng. He fits the high upside, shoot for the stars mantra that I was preaching earlier. But I rewatched the highlight film again, and I just... dont see it. I hope I am wrong!
I am here for the jumbo sized Thunder experience. And a 6'10 playmaker will only my increase my enjoyment of said experience.
I respect the shot in the dark at some upside, but Ousmane Dieng? really?
JALEN WILLIAMS - THUNDER
GRADE: D, but also maybe an A
This is an interesting one
I forsee a 10% possibility that three years from now, we are like "holy shitballs this Jalen Williams kid is really freaking good, where did he come from again, Santa Clara? Wow, crazy."
The tools are all there.
But I also forsee a 90% possibility that three years from now, we are like, "oh yea, Williams was that kid from Santa Clara, yea remember when people really liked him from Santa Clara?"
I dont know what his work ethic is like, but as of now, his handle is not very tight and his body sucks. If those two things were to turn around, I believe in his instincts on the court, his wingspan and that sweet shooting stroke.
JALEN DUREN - PISTONS
GRADE: F
My favorite team drafted James Wiseman. I am incapable of having rationally takes about centers from Memphis.
OCHAI OCBAJI - CAVALIERS
GRADE: D
Everyone is giving this an A. If he was so good, why did he not get drafted higher? If he was so good, why did he stay all four years at Kansas? If he was so good, why weren't NBA teams fighting over the chance to get the best player on the national title winning team? I dont know, I am just not buying it.
MARK WILLIAMS - HORNETS
GRADE: B
it. Lamelo needs a lob threat. Mark Williams can do that great while also protecting the rim. He will be a way better fit than Mason Plumlee and as a huge Lamelo fan, I love that.
AJ GRIFFIN - HAWKS
GRADE: B
I like AJ Grffin and I also like his fit on the Hawks.
TARI EASON - HOUSTON
GRADE: C
Sure. Why not.
DALEN TERRY - BULLS
GRADE: A
I have now decided that I love Dalen Terry. If you kind of average out all of the things that draft people have been saying about him, it does seem like he is going to be pretty awesome. One of those, wait, everybody is describing a player that every team would really like to have. I predict he will be an outside the lottery guy that we look back years from now and be like, wow.
JAKE LARAVIA - GRIZZLIES
GRADE: A
Sure. Why question the Grizzlies draft prowess at this point.
MALAKI BRANHAM- SPURS
GRADE: A+++
I have to confess that I have gone bonkers for Malakai Branham. Early in this college basketball season, he caught my attention with his swagger. Than, I had completely forgotten about his existence until his entrance in this draft reminded me that Ohio State had a guard with swagger and that his name is Malakai Branham.
So I felt good about him leading up to the draft.
But now, post draft and post three viewings of his 12 minute highlight film on youtube, I am all in. I do believe that we will look back on this pick and wonder, "how the heck the spurs were so lucky to end up with Branham at pick #20."
I love the fit with the Spurs, who are in desperate need of a primary scorer. I love his frame, which already looks like a great NBA body at age 19. And I LOVE his scoring confidence and instincts. His midrange game already glistens with a Kris Middelton type of polish. His catch and shoot three point stroke is oh so sweet and dont you worry your little self about his ability to finish at the rim. He shows all kinds of versatility at the rim in his highlight film, from power to finnese and everything in between.
The best thing of all? This kid is only 19! You CAN NOT produce the type of highlight reel that he did as a freshman in the Big Ten unless you are some next level kind of gym rat. I firmly believe in his ability to approve, and I firmly believe in Malakai Branam!
Seriously though, just watch this video, and tell me I am wrong..
youtube.com/watch?v=wyIxoIuQOYk&t=366s
7/6/22 ADD: A+ to the Grizzlies for picking up my guy Kenneth Lofton Jr. He is going to make it!!
