Its all Chris Sims.
The former NFL QB on an unprecedented hot streak, who has accurately ranked 1st round NFL draft picks at a 100% success rate 3 years running.
His ranking of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen over Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, as well as Justin Herbert over Tua Tagioviola has rightfully gained him a substantial cult following.
And so unlike previous draft seasons, people are actually listening to Chris Sims this time around. And this time around, he has ranked Mac Jones as the 3rd best prospect in the draft, over more popular choices Justin Fields and Trey Lance.
And so the logic goes; "this guy gets every quarterback ranking right, this guy has Mac Jones over Justin Fields and Trey Lance and thus, Mac Jones WILL have to be better Justin Fields and Trey Lance because this guy gets ever quarterback ranking right!"
AND SINCE I AM SOMEBODY WHO WANTS TO GET THIS RIGHT, I BETTER ALIGN MYSELF WITH SOMEBODY WHO ALWAYS GETS THIS RIGHT.
But unfortunately this type of thinking is faulty. Projecting future NFL quarterback success is more like like Russian Roulette than figuring out 2+2. Talent evaluation never has and never will be a 100% proposition. Otherwise evaluations would be done by a computer and NFL would just be an elaborate auto-draft that lasts about 3 seconds.
So sadly, logic and numbers dictate that Chris Sims will eventually get an evaluation wrong. And for anybody currently aligning themselves with Chris Sims and Mac Jones right now, I would suggest that the bullet is closing in onto the fatal chamber.
Now to be clear, I do very much like Chris Sims. I listened to his podcast and his analysis is outstanding. He is not afraid to nerd it up and deep dive into technical football nuances, and I love it. He is clearly very smart and clearly has a deep understanding of the Quarterback position.
However, there are two things that simply cannot be overlooked.
The first is sample size. Chris Sims' track record simply does not have a large enough sample size to confirm that he is the ultimate talent evaluator. We KNOW that NFL teams, with their huge scouting departments and giant budgets, get it right about 50% of the time. Do we really believe that Chris Sims is so special, that he can get it right 100% of the time? No, that is absolutely preposterous. He will most certainly get some picks wrong, just like everybody else, when given a larger sample size.
The second is draft order. He has benefited by favoring players "lower in the rankings" and than having those players go to better situations, BECAUSE they are "lower in the rankings." I do not feel that this is intentional, however it can not be overlooked. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes landed in plush gigs, with GREAT head coaches and loaded rosters. Meanwhile, higher picks Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have found themselves in much "less plush" situations. This dynamic naturally props up Chris Sims credibility to a degree, especially when dealing with such a small sample size.
And so these two things beg the question, is Chris Sims really a quarterback evaluating savant? Or will he fall back to earth over time?
And the answer of course is yes, he will fall victim to the law of averages just like the rest of us. He will whiff eventually, and unfortunately that whiff, is going to be Mac Jones.
Just like a scouting department provides a second set of eyes, in case the Head Boss is overlooking something, it is very simple to determine that Simms, who may be suffering from a touch of hubris, is most certainly "overlooking something."
So what is it?
He is putting to much stock into what he saw from Jones in college and not projecting what it will look like in the pros. Sims has become enamored with the "machine-like" nature of Mac Jones play IN COLLEGE. But is ignoring how that will transfer to the NFL.
And I dont blame him. As somebody who has ALSO watched every Mac Jones throw from last season, I do understand what Sims is seeing. Jones has a remarkable knack for putting the ball on the money, time and time again. I do understand getting swept away with the feeling that "this guy is way better than people realized."
However, anybody looking to project Jones into the NFL, must measure Jones success in college against what is required to be successful in the NFL. And the reality is that even though Jones was a surprisingly good college player, nothing that he did in college is rare for the NFL. There are easily 65 players in the NFL right now, who could do, exactly what Mac Jones just did, at Alabama. Perfect protection, superior scheme, open receivers 95% of the time. In the NFL, where the talent level is evened out, a QB finds himself in this type of situation about 30% of the time. And any time this percentage increases, they absolutely dominate.
So hitting receivers, behind a perfect pocket that the coaching staff has schemed open, is not a rare NFL attribute. What is rare however, is the ability to make plays the other 70% of the time. The ability to not only survive, but thrive, when their is not perfect protection, superior scheme or even open receivers.
The elite NFL quarterbacks are able to do this. And they do this by utilizing two skill sets that Mac Jones simply does not possess; Athleticism and Arm Strength.
So first, lets clarify what I mean by athleticism. I am not talking about 40 times, or even running with the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. Hell, I am not even talking necessarily about getting outside of the pocket.
I am talking about Floyd Mayweather.
I am talking about, "you cant touch me, and when I decide to strike, you wont even see it coming." This is the common thread between the Tom Brady and Drew Brees' of the world and the Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. The ability to be twitchy, elusive and decisive.
Mac Jones does not have this.
In the NFL, each drop back will be 2.5x faster. Each read must be processed 3x quicker, each window to throw 5x smaller. It takes a Floyd Mayweather type athlete to be ELITE under these circumstances. Nothing that we have seen from Mac Jones indicates that he has Floyd Mayweather type athleticism whatsoever. Zack Wilson can be disccused in a different conversation.
So if you dont have this gift, there is another way to survive, and that is with superior arm strength. Which naturally forms the 2nd tier of quarterbacks, most of whom are able to find success, albeit less consistent, within. the NFL.
The Jared Goff's, Matthew Staffords, Jimmy Garraplos, Matt Ryans and Kirk Cousins. The guys that when given time, can throw darts. And I say darts intentionally, because I am not talking specifically about deep balls. I am talking about the ball going from point A to point B in a blink. Just like a dart.
Mac Jones DOES NOT have this.
Yes, he throws with great touch, great anticipation and great accuracy, but he does not throw darts. He simply does not get enough MPH behind his throws to get the ball from point A to point B fast enough to fit into NFL windows.
This is not to say that there isn't a time and place for touch, anticipation and accuracy in the NFL. There most certainly is. However the big money contracts are earned on 3rd and 8. And 3rd and 8 requires the quarterback to hit his target with a dart when everybody in the stadium knows he is going to try and do this.
Touch, timing and anticipation are common. Darts are rare.
And so all of this is to ask the very elusive question, "Why has this Mac Jones thing gotten so out of control?" Why is a quarterback prospect who so clearly does not posses the skillset of an elite quarterback, being projected to be drafted like an elite quarterback, particularly when there would appear to be other quarterbacks who do posses elite skillsets?
It's because of Chris Sims.
The man in the midst of a remarkable hot streak, who is getting more attention than ever, and is directly linked to a team picking #3 overall in the draft.
Its a game of craps, and Sims is holding the hot hand. Everyone has gathered around and wants in on the winnings.
Yet we all know, because it is the unfortunate truth, his luck will run out eventually.
And that luck will run out with Mac Jones.
