My depth of knowledge is a little thin this year. I watched a good bit of the blue blood NCAA teams; Duke, Gonzaga, Arizona. I kept a fairly keen eye on Purdue and Auburn. I also saw a decent amount of SEC and WCC basketball. I know zero about the international or g-league prospects. I found very little time to go back and watch games / highlights, which is something that I do typically do in the spring, due to a certain teams NBA title run...
But!! Despite a down year, the tradition must be maintained. So from this point forward, I will pretend that I know exactly what I am talking about.
2022 NBA DRAFT RANKINGS
TIER 1: STARS
Guys that will definitely be stars...
1. Paulo Banchero - Duke
Banchero is my #1 guy and I am confused as to why this is not consensus. Banchero can score in a variety of ways, is a legitimate passer, has a good handle and a huge frame. All while appearing to be a great teammate at Duke.
Banchero is simply the best scorer / playmaker of the consensus top 4.
Yes, the defense wasn't great at Duke, but Paulo is 6'10 and 250 pounds. As he improves, I believe he will learn how to utilize that size to at least get him to average. And when you consider what he can do in that frame on the offensive end, well, that is why he is my #1 guy.
2. Jaden Ivey - Purdue
I spent the entire college basketball season assuming that Jaden Ivey would be the #1 pick. I watched Purdue many times, and always came away thinking, "wow, it is crazy that Purdue has the small forward version of Ja Morant on their team."
Although I have Banchero ranked higher now, I still think very highly of Ivey and my rationale is pretty simple.... Elite First Step + Way More Space in NBA + Son of Coach = Potential Superstar.
There was simply nobody in college basketball that could stay in front of Jaden Ivey this season. To me, his first step is in that Westbrook, Morant, DRose type of tier. Purdue played a throwback style of basketball this season built around traditional big men. This was good for the team, but not for Ivey, who looks perfectly designed to be a spread the floor NBA slasher. And finally, Ivey's mom is the HC at Notre Dame. This, with how hard Ivey plays every game that I watched, and how fit his body is, leaves me feeling confident that he has the work ethic necessary to work his way to NBA stardom.
*I am not worried about his three point shot. He only needs to shoot average, which he already does, and his mechanics only require minor tweaks
TIER 2 - COULD BE STARS
These are the guys that could become stars, but come with some risk..
3. Chet Holmgren - Gonzaga
I feel the same way about Chet as I did about Jonathon Kuminga last year. You just have to take the lottery ticket. Could he be an absolute bust? Yes. But, could he also be three point shooting Rudy Gobert? Yes.
Look, I could find a lot of things to be critical about. I don't totally buy the "high IQ" label. He cant really do anything on offense as of right now. He weights very nearly 1/2 as much as NBA players such as Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.
But that is not what you are drafting. You are drafting the 7'5 wingspan, the elite shot blocking and the three point shooting. You are looking to land Rudy Gobert with a jump shot. You are banking on Kristaps Porzingis with excellent defense.
And you simply don't have very many chances to find somebody with that kind of potential. Whether it be the draft, trade or free agency. Draft the lottery ticket and hope for the best!
* the Gonzaga games I watched, he didn't totally know where to go or what to do. His instincts were a little clunky to me. The team was well coached, which I believe to be the source of the "high IQ" label. I wouldn't say he, himself, looked high IQ. I would say he was in a high IQ system ,around very high IQ players. (Specifically Drew Timme.) None of this is a terrible thing. He was a true freshman playing in some big time games, but it is worth noting.
**He was awesome at Gonzaga as a "drop" pick and roll defender. And that should be a highly valuable NBA skill from Day 1. He also truly does have "elite" shot blocking instincts
4. Jabari Smith - Auburn
I would not be disappointed to have Jabari Smith on my team. I do not think Jabari Smith is the #1 prospect in this draft. I believe both of these statements can be true.
Jabari 100% looks like a player that could be on the court in the NBA finals. He is big, athletic and can shoot. He looks like a modern day Robert Horry. Jabari does not look to me like the guy you want carrying your offense in the NBA finals. He looks like a modern day Robert Horry.
Damn near every close Auburn game, Smith tried to win the game with his jump shot (and playing hard on defense). Never by getting to the rim. Never by passing the ball. And to me, that is a knock against the idea of Smith becoming a #1 or #2 NBA option.
Could he improve? Of course. He is 19 years old. But to me, if I am at the bottom of the league, I want to swing for the true #1 or #2, not a high end role player.
* it looks like he will be an extremely high end role player
** he is 19 years old, 6'10, jacked, all kinds of athleticism and a wet jumper and I am over here labeling him a role player smh
5. Shaeden Sharpe - Kentucky
Look, he can shoot the lights out and jump out of the gym. I don't know anything more about him than you do. The two minutes of highlights that I have seen were enough to make me think he could be an NBA star. They were THAT impressive. It is very difficult to land a star in the NBA, and Sharpe is probably the last chance to find one in this draft. And that is all I know.
TIER 3 - ROLE PLAYERS
6. Keegan Murray - Iowa
I like Murray. I feel like these guys always fly under the radar. He does not pop off of the screen athletically. He dosen't really wow you with passing or defense or even iso scoring. He just kinda gets buckets while also doing everything else halfway decent. Very Antwain Jamison like and I dig it.
Here is how each Iowa game that I watched went for me. "Wow, I am excited to watch this Keegan Murray kid people are talking about." "Wow, how many of Fran McCaffery's kids are on this team." "Wow, this team is really bad on defense." "Wow, I didn't really notice Murray too much." "Holy crap he had 27 points??"
He is one of those guys.
7. Jeremy Sochan - Baylor
He caught my eye early in the college basketball season. I could not believe he was a true freshman. Very grown up looking teenager. Looks to me like a clear NBA playoff rotation player to me. Can come in, guard a bunch of people, rebound, make simple plays and fit into a team concept. Really the only thing he doesn't do well is shoot, and I am just not to worried about that. Most guys without egregious mechanical issues figure it out in the NBA now. I have a similar excited feeling about him as I did Herb Jones last year. The dude just knows how to play ball. I like guys on my team that just know how to play ball.
*it is so easy to fall into the "this guy can shoot and dunk and looks athletic" trap. At the end of the day, its a team game, and Sochan is one of those guys that just makes a team better.
8. Aj Griffin - Duke
Griffin snuck way under my radar this year at Duke. About 3 weeks ago, I watched a 12 minute highlight film of Griffin at Duke. I said to myself, "hold up, how is this not like a consensus top 5 player in this draft." 6'6 wing with bulk, just drilling shot after shot after shot. So I dialed up a Duke game from this season and quickly skimmed through it and... "oh, there it is." Dude is a mess on defense. To put it lightly, his defense is bad. But! I am telling you, that highlight video man! That highlight video!!!
8. Johnny Davis - Wisconsin
I like Davis. His youtube highlights are legit. When you string all of his top plays together, he looks pretty explosive, shifty and a good looking jump shot. I think my favorite thing about him is how he competes on defense. He really gets after it, and really knows what he is doing. I was surprised to see that he only shot 30% from three last year. I think he can get that number way up with consistent work. It was concerning to see so many midrange jumpers on his highlight film. He wont get to take many of those as an NBA role player. So there are things to work on, but I like the idea of his long term development. I know it sounds crazy on paper, but I think I would prefer him over Mathurin. I see teeny-tiny-shades of Brandon Roy when I watch Davis highlights. I currently prefer him as my two guard over Mathurin, which could be laughable long term.
** Johnny Davis is most certainly not Brandon Roy. And these types of mental comparisons which have nothing to do with anything are usually what get me in trouble. Johnny Davis is Johnny Davis. He is not Brandon Roy. The only reason those two names are next to each other is because my brain just up and decided to do so. Johnny Davis is not Brandon Roy.
10. Benedict Mathurin - Arizona
I dont know what it is about Mathurin. I just have a hard time getting on board. He looks the part; great body, athleticism, good jump shot. But, I just don't feel like he is elite enough at any one thing to really separate himself. He isn't lockdown. He isn't a sniper. He isn't consistently getting to the free throw line.
The guys I have ahead of him, I know what I am going to get; Murray = Scoring, Sochan = Defense, Griffin = Elite Shooting and Davis = Defense. ....with Mathurin, I just don't totally know what I am getting. How exactly is he going to help my team win games??
Sometimes guys carve out 10 year careers, being steady eddy's but never really having a big NBA moment or impact. That kind of feels like Mathurin to me.
*With all of this said, Maturin is a 6'7 high flyer who can knock down jump shots. So He could easily make my analysis look ridiculous
**but I did watch 4-5 Arizona games this year and I never really came away feeling like, "holy cow!! Ben Mathurin!!
*** but there was that game in the NCAA tournament where he was awesome and single handedly saved Arizona's season
**I really with I could watch all the film on all of these guys so that I would actually know. The film rarely lies!!I BUT unless I want to spend a month in a film dungeon, I just gotta go with my gut
***I really want to spend a month in a film dungeon
TIER 4 - THROWING DARTS
Every player in this draft is talented. That is why they are considered to be "60 of the top players in the world not yet in the NBA." I would imagine that if I were to watch 3-5 full game films of each prospect, I would end up liking (or clearly not liking) most of them. Long way to say, keep in mind that I am highly biased towards the players that I watched a lot of, and generally disregard the others...
11. Dyson Daniels - G league
I am generally disregarding Daniels. I honestly know very close to zero about him. I watched a highlight film, and I wasn't a huge fan of the way he moved. What does that even mean?? I don't really know. He just didn't move like an NBA player to me.
But, what do I know. He looked crafty in the highlight film. People seem to think he is good and you don't just end up on the G-League ignite at age 18 if you totally suck
One thing that I do know about him is that his brother plays for the Regis Rangers who are in the RMAC. When the brother committed to Regis two years ago I looked up an Australian highlight film and somehow got Dyson Daniels confused with his brother Ky Daniels. Lets just say that Dyson is a lot better than Ky.
12. Jalen Williams - Santa Clara
This is the Desmond Bane pick all over again!. He shoots the heck out of it and can do other stuff too. Lets not over think this. He is 6'6, can shoot the heck out of it and can do other stuff too. "No! We do not need Jalen Duren." "I do not care how athletic Jalen Duren is!" Lets just take the guy that is 6'6, can shoot the heck out of it and can do other stuff to. "Yes, I know Jalen Duren looks like the second coming of Dwight Howard." Just take the guy who can stroke threes and also do other stuff too!!
13. Jalen Duren - Memphis
He is the second coming of Dwight Howard.
14. Mark Williams - Duke
My brain is grouping the centers together because that is how brains work! We are not inherently logical people. Ryen Russilo said he was a 5 star out of high school. He also attended Duke. These are all of the things that I know about him. I watched 3-5 Duke games this year and I barely even remember him. Top 14 prospect baby!!
15. Malaki Branham - Ohio State
I watched two Ohio State games early on in the season and came away thinking, "wow, they have a really good guard." For some reason it did not register to me that he was an NBA prospect, so when his name popped up this draft season, I was like "oh snap! that guy from ohio state is a baller!" I do not remember the exact details of his game, but I do remember that he had a lot of swagger and he could score. And I like those kind of guys.
16. Wendell Moore - Duke
This is where my rankings start getting real wonky. But, I definitely like Wendell Moore. I could see him getting drafted much higher than everybody thinks. He has a really impressive frame and nice athleticism and competes. I could see him working hard and becoming a really nice role player for somebody. Needs to improve his skill level for sure. But you cant teach that body and competitive drive. Maybe a little Lu Dort'ish???
17. Patrick Baldwin - Wisconsin Milwaukee
I do not know what the story on Patrick Baldwin is, and I have never seen him play, but he was a 5 star prospect and consensus top 10 pick at some point
18. Ochai Agbai - Kansas
He could be aight'. If his jump shot stays consistent he could stick around the NBA I would think. I am already bored talking about Ochai Agbai.
19. Tari Eason- LSU
LSU!! LSU!! He is tough and loves shooting those three balls. Don't underestimate me when I say he LOVES shooting that three ball. He plays his balls off. I am kinda talking myself into him! There could be worse wings to pick up in this draft. Maybe a fun project pick for a playoff team.
20. Christian Koloko - Arizona
I really like Christian Koloko for the Warriors. They need a backup center and I think Okoro is an excellent low cost option at the end of the first round. He plays very hard and can do all of the things that James Wiseman can not do.
I really like the way that he moves. He has really good timing contesting shots around the rim and competes for rebounds. I felt like his hands were pretty good. Maybe not elite, but good. I thought he was a pretty good interior finisher at UofA. I remember him having some nice finishes in the big matchups against UCLA.
Probably most intriguing of all, Arizona switched him out onto guards at times and he was able to hold his own. Everyone always talks about someone filling the "Javale McGee" role for the Warriors. But I would prefer someone to fill the Kevon Looney role. I could see Koloko playing a similar way to Looney in the Warriors system with better shot blocking. If the Warriors do not draft Koloko, I will get over it in about 15 seconds.
21. Dalen Terry - Arizona
Another Arizona guy, they were really fun to watch this year. I really wish I had registered Terry as an NBA guy in this years draft. I didn't totally register him like I did his two teamates. This is a guy I would really like to find the time to go re-watch. As I have mentioned, I watched a lot of Arizona games this season. He was definitely a factor and I liked him, I just didn't think he would declare for the draft this early and so I didn't mentally register as many of his plays as I would have liked. I do remember some wow moments.
22. EJ Lidell - Ohio State
I liked EJ Liddell at Ohio State. I highly doubt my lack of analysis on him will burn me.
** How awesome would it be if he becomes awesome and burns my lack of analysis
SIDE BAR #1 SLEEPERS
Kenneth Lofton Jr. - Louisiana Tech
I love, love, love Kenneth Lofton Jr. from Louisiana Tech. Every year I find someone to irrationally fall in love with. And this year Lofton Jr is the one! (The Deni Avijda club) I am shocked to find that he entered the draft. Last I checked he was in the transfer portal looking to go to a blue blood.
The backstory on Lofton is that he was on the U19 USA team coached by Jeff Van Gundy (last summer I think.) I watch all of those games because Van Gundy is very good with the X and O's and I always learn a lot.
Anyways, Lofton Jr. was awesome! the whole tournament. He is like 6'6 280 pounds or something, but somehow just knows where to go and what to do. His biggest strength is on the low block, so you would think he wouldn't be a fit for the modern game, but as the FIBA tournament showed, he surprisingly just knows how to get things done.
Than, when he damn near beat my LSU tigers by himself early this season, I was sold for life! If I am an NBA team, I draft him and than I do two things. First, I get some of the weight off of him. Saying he is "big" is putting it nicely. Second, I just put him on the court and see what happens. His game isn't like Draymond Green's, but similar to Draymond Green, I think you just need to put him on the court and see what he becomes. He is not going to fit into a "box" (pun intended) but I trust him to carve out a niche.
**Joel will understand what I mean when I say he is the Davey Miramontez of NBA prospects
JD Davison - Alabama
I am not shying away from Davison's "meh" freshman season in Tuscaloosa. I believe in this 6'3 guard with a sweet handle, powerful first step, crazy bounce, smooth looking jump shot and awesome hair. Look, he is young. And young players do crazy things and are inconsistent. Davison is guilty of both. But long term, I like his talent and would be totally willing to invest in his development. I think he will be an awesome NBA combo guard.
SIDE BAR #2 LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR
Rankings 1-6:
I assessed the Top 6 fairly well. Mobley looks great, and his NBA value is probably higher right now than Cunningham or Green. However, I still think it was the right decision to draft the high end play-makers. (if that makes any sense) +3
Everyone was saying that Suggs was going to Toronto. I was on the money saying that Barnes should and would go to Toronto. I was correct in NOT buying into the concerns about Barnes and I was also correct about HAVING concerns about Jalen Suggs. +1
Kuminga is still an enigma. Even though Barnes was good for Toronto, Kuminga clearly has more talent. Perhaps over time it could look like Toronto should have taken Kuminga. +0
In my notes I said that Kuminga would have a tough time on a team like the Warriors. That is looking like a strange thing to have said. I wonder how much longer Kuminga will be "totally cool" with being just a role player. -1
Rankings 7-12:
This section was rough for me. Franz Wagner must have worked on his game every waking second from his last game with Michigan to his first game with Orlando. He looks awesome! And pretty clearly a top long term talent from this draft. I 100% whiffed on Franz Wagner. -5
I went back and forth on Josh Giddey a few different times, but it is now very clear that I should have had him above James Bouknight. -1
I nailed the Chris Duarte assessment. +1
My love for Alpern Sengun is just straight bizarre and confusing. I caught a brief Lakers Rockets game this season and Sengun had no idea what he was doing. I ranked him as my 7th favorite prospect. We will see... -1
Rankings 14-22:
Every year there are guys that you just feel obligated to put in your top 16, and than you never hear from them again. Corey Krispert, who I ranked at 14, appears to be headed that direction. Group think is a silly thing! -1
Sticking with Zaire Williams at 15 when most everybody else had him sliding was the right decision. The Stanford season had nothing to do with what he will become in the NBA. He looks great. While I had him high, I should have ranked him much higher and the Warriors probably should have drafted him instead of Moody. +1 -1 +1
Both the San Antonio Spurs and I are looking good for believing in Josh Primo. +1
Last years rankings do not accurately express how dominant my herb jones assessment was. At the time, everyone had him as a late second rounder. I had him at #21!!! I would have put him even higher had I not been befallen by stupid group think!! He is clearly a top 10 player from this draft and definitely who the Warriors should have taken over Moody. +10
Quote from last year comparing Zaire Williams to Herb Jones: "Herb Jones cant shoot a lick, so there is that. But am I really that crazy if I would rather have the other 6'8 dude, you know the one with a brain and a heart, who is going to defend, rebound, make plays and show up in big moments?"
PS - I had both Williams and Herb Jones ranked over Moody. Looking at you warriors...
It is still early, but I think I might have been right on the Davion Mitchell thing. Still rooting for you buddy! +1
Miles McBride is terrible. I totally whiffed on that one. -1
Getting obsessed with Tre Man and Jason Preston was a silly waste of time. Things could still change! -1
Prospects 23 -31:
Still in on Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Still backing my pre-draft assessment. +1
The other names in this teir haven't made any noise yet...
Way way off on Ayo Dosumunu who I had at #31. He looks awesome! -2
+3 broke just about even after one year baby yea!!
And back to this years draft...
TIER 4: WHERE MY KNOWLEDGE FALLS OFF OF A CLIFF
- It seems like you should definitely want Tyty Washington because he went to Kentucky. When in doubt, just draft a Kentucky guy!! Like, seriously though
- Osmunie Dieng. I watched a highlight film and it looked very meh
- Kennedy Chandler - I don't trust very many people from tennessee in general and I definitely do not trust NBA prospects from the University of Tennessee. Has there been a good one since Allen Houston?
- Marjon Beauchamp somehow played at a junior college in Oregon. I always check the stats of juco players in oregon and when I saw his numbers I almost reached out to see if he would interested in CMU and than I put on the game film for like 30 seconds and was like oh shit he wont be coming here...
- I really like Walker Kessler and think that he will stick as an NBA player. I liked the way he defended ballscreens in college. And Holy cow does he protect the rim! And I liked the mechanics on his jumpshot, although it hardly ever went in. Fan of Kessler as an NBA backup 5.
- There are going to be some second round success stories in this draft. I wish I had more time to find all of the gems
- I had never heard of Blake Wesley, until today
- A little wild that Nikola Jokic is in this draft again
Ok, I think I am officially out of content. That is it for my 2022 analysis!
